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New data from Stats SA shows that unemployment is rising among all levels of education in South Africa, but those with a tertiary qualification still have the best chance of finding a job.
The group published its Labour Market Dynamics in South Africa 2021 report on Thursday (16 March), showing employment and job market trends in the country over the last six years (2016-2021).
The data shows the massive impact the Covid-19 pandemic had on the South African job market, which saw a net loss of more than 1 million jobs over the period, pushing the unemployment rate up to highs of 34.3%.
Because the report only covers 2016 to 2021, it does not depict the changes and post-Covid recoveries seen in 2022.
Factoring the latest data from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey for Q4 2022, it’s clear some of the damage done in the job market over that period is starting to be undone – with the unemployment rate crawling back from the highs of 2021 to 32.7% in the fourth quarter of 2022.
However, it is evident that many pain points persist and that there is by no means a great story to tell in the South African job market.
While South Africa lost 1 million jobs between 2016 and 2021, by the end of Q4 2022, this has climbed to a net gain of 154,000 jobs. However, the reality is that the adult working population increased by 3.8 million people over the same period (2016 to 2022).
This means that other population categories increased significantly, including 2 million more people classified as unemployed, 1 million more discouraged, and over 660,000 more classified as not economically active.
Strained job market
It is clear from the data that South Africa’s job market remains under pressure, affecting all citizens across race, gender and education levels. But the impact is far more pronounced among those who do not have further education.
According to Stats SA, the unemployment rate increased by 7.6 percentage points between 2016 and 2021.
Unemployment increased progressively with lower education levels, however. Simply put, those who have obtained a higher level of education have lower unemployment rates.
Between 2016 and 2021, the unemployment rate increased across all education levels, and the largest increase was observed among those with matric education level, which saw a jump of 8.9 percentage points.
This is compared to the levels at tertiary education, where the jump was ‘only’ 5.8 percentage points.
Those who had no matric saw unemployment rise by 8.1 percentage points.
“Education continues to play an important role in the labour market. Those with higher levels of education stand a better chance in employment meaning people with tertiary education are more likely to be employed compared to people with matric and below matric education levels,” the group said.
The absorption and labour force participation rates decreased across all education categories over the period, Stats SA said – but the data shows that those with tertiary education are far more likely to be absorbed into the labour market.
Issues are also quite pronounced for the youth.
The overall transition rate into employment by youth decreased by 2.1 percentage points from 5.6% in 2016 to 3.5% in 2021, while the rate for adults also declined by 0.2 of a percentage point from 6.8% to 6.7% during the same period.
In 2021, about 46.0% of unemployed youth did not finish their matric while, 43.2% completed their matric and only 10.5% had a tertiary qualification.
“Education plays a vital role in a person’s prospect of finding employment and retaining it. Among those without jobs – unemployed or inactive – those with tertiary education have a higher chance of moving from unemployment or inactivity into employment compared to those without matric.”
Read: These jobs have the most work-from-home opportunities in South Africa
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