The world only has a tiny chance of keeping global warming below a key threshold that could cause several climate tipping points to be reached, drastically exacerbating the likelihood of extreme weather, according to a new report from the United Nations.

Countries have a 14% chance of keeping global warming below 1.5C even in the most optimistic scenario where all net-zero pledges are met, according to an analysis by the UN’s environment program. Current emissions-cutting plans put the world on course for up-to 2.9C of global warming and that’s assuming nations fulfill their unconditional commitments.

The findings come less than …