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The World Cupis at its business end. All that has transpired over the last one month will not take too long to be forgotten if things go wrong from here.India know it very well – they had seven wins going into the semifinals of the last ODI World Cup in England – but all that remains in public imagination of that campaign is the crumbling of the top-order in the semifinal against New Zealand.
There is no scope for a single false step hereon and all four teams will try to take the learnings from the group stages to ensure that they put up a robust challenge in the semis. India, of course, will need more than a robust challenge, because anything short of title triumph will be dubbed as abject failure yet again.
As India take on New Zealand in the first semifinal at Wankhede Stadium on Wednesday and Australia cross swords with South Africa at Eden Gardens a day later, TOI tries to look at the strengths and weaknesses of all the four teams.
FIRST SEMIFINAL: INDIA VS NEW ZEALAND
INDIA
STRENGTH: It is difficult to pinpoint one because every department has been ?ring. Still, if there has to be one, it is the pace bowling unit of Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Shami and Mohammed Siraj that has absolutely terrorized opposition teams. Most teams have struggled to score 50 in the first 10 overs against India and more often than not, have lost at least a couple of wickets, if not more, in the process. If the pace trio can do that against New Zealand on Wednesday, it should not be too difficult for the Indian team to ease into yet another final.
WEAKNESS: On the face of it, there aren’t any. But after the injury to all-rounder Hardik Pandya, India have chosen to go in with five bowlers, Kuldeep Yadav and Ravindra Jadeja sharing the spinners’ duty. In case any of the bowlers starts leaking runs, Rohit Sharma doesn’t have any back-up options. The skipper himself and Virat Kohli bowled a bit against the Netherlands on Sunday, but the skipper would hope that it doesn’t come to a situation that they have to roll their arms over.
OPPORTUNITY: The New Zealand team, after a rousing start, lost four back-to-back games against top quality opposition and it needed a win against lacklustre Sri Lanka to go through. India will know that the Kiwis could be slightly low on confidence when they are up against the top teams, and the way Rohit & Co. are performing, they have every opportunity to make the most of it and take the game away from the team that had shown them the door in the last World Cup.
THREAT: In the first hour of the evening session, there seems to be a bit of help for pace bowlers at Wankhede. The Indian pacers ran through Lanka and even Afghanistan pacers made life difficult for Australia. If India are to bat second, it will be important for the Indian top-order to deal with the swing and seam movement that the Kiwi pacers Trent Boult, Tim Southee and Lockie Ferguson may generate.
NEW ZEALAND
STRENGTH: The New Zealand top-order has been up to the task right through the tournament. Though Devon Conway hasn’t been in form, Rachin Ravindra, Kane Williamson, Daryl Mitchell and the rest of the batting unit have delivered. Even in the game against India in Dharmshala, they managed 273 and there was a time when it seemed that they would get more. If the likes of Ravindra and Williamson survive the burst of the Indian pace trio, there is a possibility that they can put up a decent score. In the games against Australia and Pakistan – which they lost – there was nothing to fault the Kiwi batting and India will need to strike early.
WEAKNESS: It has to be their bowling. Boult and Southee are great bowlers when there is a bit of help, but when there’s not much assistance, they have a tendency to go for runs. Fakhar Zaman’s brutal assault on the duo exposed that it can be taken apart and it will bother them that they couldn’t defend 400 (even though rain played a part) against Pakistan. The injury to Matt Henry hasn’t helped New Zealand’s cause and Ferguson, too, has the habit of being a little wayward in his attempt to go for pace.
OPPORTUNITY: It is the zero-expectation scenario that the Kiwis are in. There won’t be a storm of criticism back home if they lose, no heads will roll if they go down to favourites India. By making the semifinals despite their limitations, last edition’s finalists have exceeded the expectations and anything more than this will be greeted with a lot of appreciation. Rachin Ravindra had told TOI a few days ago that it is “the relaxed culture” of New Zealand that helps them thrive as a unit and that’s exactly what Kane’s army will like to do. They will look to enjoy their extended stint in India and that could free them up from the shackles of unwanted pressure in a knock-out scenario.
THREAT: If the New Zealand pacers go for runs, the spin attack doesn’t have much to put the Indians under any kind of pressure. Mitchell Santner is decent with his left-arm spin, but he is at best restrictive, while Ravindra is still learning the craft. It is unlikely that New Zealand will risk an off-colour leggie Ish Sodhi. In such a scenario, on a pitch where there is a little bit in it for spinners, the New Zealand attack may become cannon fodder for Indian batting.
SECOND SEMIFINAL: AUSTRALIA VS SOUTH AFRICA
SOUTH AFRICA
STRENGTH: The super-explosive top-order of South Africa has been one of the talking points of this World Cup. Quinton de Kock has been the stand-out opener along while Rassie Van Der Dussen, Heinrich Klassen, Aiden Markram and David Miller have all come good. The South African batters have played with an incredible freedom and made a mockery of some of the attacks in the World Cup. Their No. 7 Marco Jansen has also come up in leaps and bounds, delivering both with the bat and the ball at big moments.
WEAKNESS: It rarely happens that a team’s strength is also their weakness, but that’s South Africa for you. The batting line-up that is so good batting first, tend to look a completely different unit while chasing. While their 243-run loss to India is one of the biggest losses of this World Cup, they showed their infamous tendency to choke against Pakistan, too, in Chennai.
With 21 to get from 10 overs and four wickets in hand, South Africa were a whisker away from losing the game that would have brought Pakistan back in the World Cup. It was their luck that day that took South Africa through, but such slipups in the semifinal will surely send them home empty-handed.
OPPORTUNITY: The Eden Gardens pitch normally has a bit in it for the pace bowlers which should be good news for the likes of Kagiso Rabada, Lungi Ngidi, Jansen and Gerald Coetzee. The South Africans will also start as underdogs and the Kolkata crowd has a habit of supporting the team that is not the strongest on paper. Don’t be surprised if the vibrant Eden Gardens crowd that greeted the South Africans back to international cricket some 32 years ago, does its bid in trying to make it a ‘home’ setting for the eternal underachievers of international cricket.
THREAT: The history of choking on the big stage just can’t be negated. South Africa have lost enough and more from winning positions in the past, their choke in the 1999 semifinal against Australia and 2015 semis against New Zealand are stuff of legends. The South African captain Temba Bavuma tries his best to ensure that those dark shadows don’t loom on this team, but there have been hints that it can rear its ugly head at the worst possible time.
AUSTRALIA
STRENGTH: The top-order, comprising David Warner, Travis Head, Mitchell Marsh, Steve Smith and Glenn Maxwell, has been in superb touch. Smith was the only one who was finding it a little tough, but he too got a decent hit against Bangladesh in the last group game. If two of the top-five get going, Australia have the ability to absolutely ransack any opposition bowling line-up. Maxwell’s 201 not out against Afghanistan took them to the semifinals and it was one innings that should give the Aussies a lot of belief. Such innings in World Cups have often helped teams to go all the way and the Aussies would love to believe that something similar is in store for them.
WEAKNESS: While the five batters mentioned earlier have been in ?ne touch, the likes of Josh Inglis, Marcus Stoinis and Cameron Green haven’t got going. It hasn’t bothered the Aussies as they went on a winning streak to make the semifinals, but in a knock-out stage, the Aussies would prefer that the lower middle-order comes good. Otherwise it could be a little too much pressure on the top-order and the bowling line-up, which has done pretty well till now in the tournament.
OPPORTUNITY: It is the seven-game winning run after losing the first two matches that is bound to give them a lot of confidence. Many had written the Australians off after they went down meekly to India and South Africa and that’s when they showed their ability to turn things around. It is the big-stage experience of many of these players that will stand them in good stead at such a crucial juncture.
THREAT: Australia have lost four ODIs in a row to South Africa, which includes three against the Proteas just before the World Cup in a bilateral series after they had taken a 2-0 lead. Though the Aussies are absolute pros and don’t normally get worried by such factors, the South Africans might have that sense of belief that they can do it one more time when it matters most. It’s to be seen how Australia buck the recent trend and make another final to make a bid for their sixth title.
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