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Citing improving economic conditions and pent-up demand, the Global Business Travel Association now projected worldwide business travel spending will reach pre-pandemic levels in 2024, the association announced Monday.
That’s a notably improved projection than the association issued in last year’s version of the association’s annual Business Travel Index Outlook, which forecast a full return to 2019 levels of business travel spending only in 2026.
GBTA cited post-pandemic pent-up demand for corporate travel, as well as “more favorable global economic conditions in 2022 and 2023” and “recession risks that have yet to happen” as the impetus for boosting its projection. GBTA now projects 2024 global business travel spending to reach $1.517 trillion, compared with $1.43 trillion in 2019.
“Global business travel spend rebounded significantly faster than 2022 than we expected just a year ago. Thank goodness we were wrong,” GBTA CEO Suzanne Neufang said Monday in Dallas during the association’s annual convention.
GBTA in a statement pointed to “the return of in-person meetings and events and the recovery of some international business travel capacity and volumes” as key drivers of business travel’s stability.
GBTA now estimates 2023 global business travel spending of $1.357 trillion, up 32.1 percent year over year.
While GBTA projects that 2023 business travel spending in each of the top 15 global markets will increase by at least 19 percent year over year, there is significant variation. Business travel spending in Japan is projected to increase 69 percent year over year, for example, followed by South Korea at 44 percent. U.S. spending is forecast to increase 25 percent year over year.
“Recovery also continues to differ by industry,” Neufang said. “Construction, education and professional, scientific and technical sectors have shown the most resiliency. While other sectors, most notably wholesale trade, retail trade and information and communication has shown the least resiliency.”
The BTI, the 15th GBTA has published, studies business travel spending in 74 countries, according to the association. It was developed in conjunction with Rockport Analytics and was sponsored by Visa.
— Elizabeth West contributed to this report.
GBTA 2022 BTI forecast
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