The current climate discussions at the 28th edition of the Conference of the Parties (COP) in Dubai centred around the target of limiting the earth’s temperature rise to below 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century from the pre-industrial (1850-1900) average of 13.9 degrees Celsius.

The target, set initially by the Paris Agreement in 2015, is seen as essential to prevent some of the most catastrophic impacts of climate change. Countries are required to make substantial cuts in their greenhouse gas emissions to achieve this target.

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Climate models show that global temperatures have increased by 1.4 degrees Celsius and could rise to 3 degrees Celsius by 2100 if we don’t reduce emissions. Greenhouse gas emissions have jumped from 14.5 billion metric tonnes in 1970 to 53.8 billion in 2022. To keep the temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius, we need to reduce emissions by 22 billion tonnes by 2030, which is a 42 per cent decrease. If the past is any indicator, emission cuts are difficult to achieve.

The reason include the non-binding nature of international climate resolutions, technology challenges in transitioning to solar and wind, and continued financial support for fossil fuels by developed countries. Let us explore the details.

From Kyoto to Dubai: Over the past five decades, global climate efforts have raised awareness but achieved limited practical results in reducing emissions. The journey began with the establishment of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 1972, marking the first significant global initiative in environmental conservation. The UNEP played a key role in raising ecological awareness, but its impact on reducing emissions was minimal due to the non-binding nature of its resolutions.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) then introduced a series of annual meetings, known as the Conferences of the Parties, starting with COP1 in 1995 in Berlin. These conferences aimed to bring global attention to climate change and initiate meaningful action. However, the initial COP meetings had limited success in compelling countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.

A major development occurred with the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, signed by 192 countries. This treaty set mandatory emission reduction targets, primarily for developed nations. However, the withdrawal of the United States, one of the largest emitters at the time, in 2001 due to economic concerns, significantly undermined the effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol.

The 2015 Paris Agreement, signed by 196 countries, marked a new chapter in climate change mitigation efforts. It aimed to limit global temperature rise to below 2 degrees Celsius, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, above pre-industrial levels. The agreement introduced nationally determined contributions (NDCs), where countries outline their emission reduction plans. Despite this, the voluntary nature of NDCs raised doubts about their adequacy in achieving the ambitious temperature targets.

COP28 in Dubai called for a tripling of renewable energy by 2030. While 118 countries agreed, India, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and many others did not. Without specific country-level targets, this goal, like most others, is just a hope. Countries must first discuss and agree on such plans rather than having them imposed. There’s a gap between the ambitious ideas promoted by global organisations and the practical, country-specific plans needed to address climate change effectively.

Energy transition challenges: The paradox in the global energy scenario is stark. Renewable energy usage is up, but so is the overall energy consumption, resulting in more fossil fuel use. This undermines climate change mitigation efforts, as the rise in total energy demand cancels out the relative decrease in fossil fuel use. Tackling this requires accelerating the shift to renewables and implementing widespread energy efficiency and consumption reduction measures.

Also, switching from fossil fuels to renewable energy is challenging. Hydroelectric power, a major renewable source, faces environmental concerns like wildlife and watershed impact, plus difficulties in finding suitable dam locations.

The current climate discussions often overlook a crucial point: There isn’t yet technology available to operate a power grid exclusively on solar or wind energy. While integrating 20-30 per cent of these renewable energies into the power mix is feasible, increasing their share is fraught with challenges. The intermittent nature of solar and wind power requires extensive energy storage solutions to manage the fluctuations in energy production. Additionally, maintaining the stability of the power grid with a higher proportion of renewables necessitates major upgrades to the existing infrastructure and demands considerable investment in new technologies and the modernisation of the grid.

Also, solar and wind are unsuited for energy-dense applications like the production of steel or  heavy trucking. Green Hydrogen technology is not mature and expensive. A high import bill is a concern as most inputs for setting up solar capacities come from China.

Developed vs developing: Advanced countries have caused 89 per cent of historical greenhouse gas emissions. They provided $1.8 trillion in subsidies to the fossil fuel industry in 2020. The United States left the Paris Climate Accord in 2020, citing economic reasons but rejoined in 2021, indicating inconsistency in its climate policies. An Oxfam report highlights a significant disparity: The carbon footprints of the richest 1 per cent are much larger than those of the poorest 66 per cent. Global emissions may not come down unless developed countries cut emissions substantially.

India’s approach: India has committed to significant climate goals. These include generating 50 per cent of its electricity from non-fossil fuels by 2030, reducing its emissions intensity by 45 per cent from 2005, and aiming for net-zero emissions by 2070. India may consider the following four actions to deepen its climate efforts.

1. Maintain its green transition without taking on new commitments at COP. India needs cheap energy even to become a middle-income country. It already has low per capita emissions compared to countries like the US and China, with its current per capita greenhouse gas emissions at 2.4 tonnes of CO2 equivalent, while it is 17.6 for the US and 8.6 for China.

2. Broaden the scope of climate action to address issues like habitat loss, biodiversity decline, and water scarcity while acknowledging diverse viewpoints. Net zero is too narrow a goal for a sustainable earth.

3. Invest in high-quality climate research, moving beyond dominant Western narratives. Many experts, including Nobel laureates, disagree with the narratives linking emissions to global warming and the panic created. We cannot hope to find the truth with developed country grants.

4. Employ tech-savvy experts to develop and lead practical climate strategies, focusing on realistic transitions. Generalists push for catchy ways forward, like replacing fossil fuel with renewable energy, without understanding the technological gaps.

The writer is the founder, Global Trade Research Initiative, a research group focussed on climate change, technology and trade issues