What to Watch in the CPI Report: Did Inflation Heat Up or Cool Down Last Month?

Americans paid less for gasoline last month, helping keep inflation in check, but underlying price pressures remained steady in October, analysts estimate. Such an outcome would leave inflation elevated and reflect why the Federal Reserve isn’t declaring an end to its historic campaign of interest-rate increases. 

• Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal estimate consumer prices rose 0.1% in October from the prior month and 3.3% from a year earlier. That would represent a slowdown from September’s 0.4% monthly rise and 3.7% yearly increase. 
• Those economists also think so-called core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy items, rose 0.3% in October from the prior month and 4.1% from a year earlier. The monthly gain would be roughly the same as in September and August and faster than more modest readings earlier in the summer. The estimated October annual increase would match September’s rise.
• At some point, an inflation reading could make the Fed more comfortable with the progress it has made to slow price increases. Tuesday’s consumer-prices report probably won’t be it.  
• The Labor Department will release the October consumer-price index report at 8.30 a.m. Eastern time Tuesday.

“We are getting to a point where it’s more difficult to keep chipping away at inflation and seeing a swift slowdown,” said Sarah House, a senior economist at Wells Fargo.