“Chugga, chugga, chugga, choo, choo, choo”: the sound of Nigeria’s 16th train wheels bumping over the tracks as it departed the station on May 29, 2023 at exactly 10:28am. The travel time is 35,040 hours. But with newspaper headlines like the following: “Government wasted $19B on refineries’ TAM in 8 years,” “N200B wasted on Census 2023,” “N85B wasted on Air Nigeria scam etc., one is bound to ask: What is Nigeria? A country or a company, a caricature or a comic? All the past 15 train captains fell into track buckling that resulted in catastrophic derailments of the train. How do we prevent a derailment of the 16th train?

In Julius Caesar, Shakespeare probably had Nigeria in mind when he said, “Men at sometime were masters of their fates. The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves that we are underlings.” (1.ii.140-142). History is not linear neither is it built on repetition but on mutation. The heights by smart nations reached and sustained were not attained by wishful thinking, but they, while other nations slept, were toiling northward through deliberate diligence and accurate thinking.

There are 10 common mistakes (Track-Buckling), which the ruling class makes that don’t make common sense. We shall x-ray one in the paragraphs below.

Track Buckling 1: Shoot First, Aim Later 
Whereas smart nations aim before shooting, Nigeria’s political elites shoot first and then aim later. Nigeria is notorious for policy somersaults and abandoned public projects like the Ajaokuta Steel Mill where over $10 Billion has been wasted, a clear evidence of anticlockwise reasoning. Before a policy is announced, the government needs to ask themselves three questions. (1) What problem are we solving? (2) What are the alternatives vis-à-vis the opportunity cost? (3) What can go wrong and how do we mitigate that?

Case Study: Fuel Subsidy Removal
Fuel subsidy is to the masses, what oxygen mask is to the C-19 patients in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) or what overseas medical tourism is to the elite. Before removing the “oxygen mask,” which is capable of devaluing the standard of living of regular Nigerians by as much as 300 per cent, the above three questions ought to have been intelligently trashed.

By shooting before aiming, Nigeria might end up wasting the first 30 days of Chapter 16, Paragraph 1, in a needless crisis. National Wasted Years (NWY) are calculated as the number of years it takes a country to wake up from her slumber, multiplied by the total population. For instance, Nigeria has wasted about 13 billion years, i.e. 220 million people multiplied by 63 years! There is no winner in a failed marriage, the husband, wife, their children and even in-laws, the guests at the wedding ceremonies and the religious instructor who joined the couple – all are losers. Ditto for a failed country.

Pathway To 60% Reduction In Transportation Cost
It is possible to change the transportation dynamics between 90-180 days of this administration, unveiling a policy that would make 60 per cent savings possible on transportation. Two win-win solutions are the immediate injection of Electric Vehicles (EVs) into the mass transit mix plus engine swap. Partnering China’s BYD (the world’s largest EVs manufacturer); Yutong, the world’s largest e-buses manufacturer; CATL (world’s largest EVs battery manufacturers) and TGood (Telaidian), the company with the highest number of electric battery charging points, would have been an example of aiming before shooting, which would have brought about a painless subsidy removal and at the same time increased citizens’ disposable income by as much as 60%.

The average price of an EV bus in China today is about $45k, while that of a car is $35k. A recent Consumer Reports study found that the average EVs owner would spend 60% less to power the vehicle and half as much on repairs and maintenance – no oil changes needed. Besides, EVs are projected to last up to 20 years and the battery will outlast the car. EVs can now travel up to 400 miles (Lagos – Warri) on a single charge. The most interesting thing in all this is that by leapfrogging to EVs, Nigeria is positioned for, like Manchester City, a treble win in 2023. One, the mineral resources required to build EVs manufacturing factories, electric batteries and charging accessories are all available in Nigeria in commercial quantities, such as lithium, manganese oxide, cobalt, graphite, steel, and nickel. Two, there will be more PMS for export as consumption drops drastically in Nigeria. Three, there would be a considerable reduction in pollution, enhancing the quality of lives of Nigerians.

As part of the intervention policy, the federal government can import 250 buses for each of the 36 states (roughly 10,000 electric buses within 90 days). The government can mandate all the existing petroleum filling stations to install EVs charging points, using TGood technology. With an investment of about $500million in EV buses and charging points taken from the $800million fuel subsidy palliative, the transportation system will get stabilised as inflation goes southward. Consequently, all the aged, 65+, retirees, physically challenged, and students would be able to enjoy free public transportation. That was the road not taken, which would have led to a renewed hope, instead of ‘renewed pains.’

Recently, the Chinese BYD company established an e-bus factory in Europe tagged, “Made in Europe for Europe.” This can be replicated in the Middle Belt: “Made in Africa for Africa.” Putting 250,000 Middle Belt youths on gainful direct and indirect EVs employments within the next 18 months is a stronger ‘Panadol’ to cure the triple headaches of youth unemployment, insecurity and multidimensional poverty than transferring N5000 to their accounts under the cash transfer policy, which is barely enough to buy three loaves of bread!

Furthermore, the 4th Generation-farming is like using a “Panadol Extra” to cure President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s revenue headache. For instance, the yearly global fish revenue is $610 billion. Meanwhile, of the 923, 770km Nigeria’s landmass, the coastline is 853 km. Empowering fish farmers from the Niger Delta axis with modern fish farming skills and technology from Vietnam, will make Nigeria become a net exporter of fish in 12 months, thereby saving the yearly $1.27billion spent in fish importation.

Similarly, to reflate the economy of Edo and Cross Rivers axis, modern technology for banana cultivation and logistics can be borrowed from Ecuador, the world’s largest banana exporter with a yearly revenue in excess of $3.5 billion. For the people of Osun and Oyo axis, to recapture the lost ground, Thailand’s innovations in cassava farming would help. Their yield is 100:1 better than Nigeria’s. The size of global tomato and vegetables markets in revenue is in excess of $400 billion. In 2021, America made $85 billion exporting vegetables, Brazil $53 billion, China $27 billion, and Canada $26 billion. Why is Nigeria not at the party? No know-how.

Again, revenue in the global fresh fruits market is projected to reach $672 billion in 2023. Meanwhile, Benue, Plateau and Edo states have better soil and temperature for fruits and vegetables than Turkey and Brazil. But we lack modern technology, which we can borrow. The Fulani nation can build a $60 billion economy from the cattle business by converting Sambisa forest (518Km2, which is half the size of Lagos state) to a cattle ranch with modern technology from America. In 2022, the global cattle revenue was $415 billion, projected to $604 billion in 2029. America’s revenue from just cattle business in 2021 was $195.8 billion. Unarguably, Nigeria is the architect, engineer, and even fashion designer of her own problems!

Going Forward, The New Government Should:
(1) Exit direct involvement in business. Kill Air Nigeria; it is looking like an “A Level” scam. The Nigerian government cannot manage any business profitably. Regarding oil, there are too many known unknowns and several unknown unknown’s variables. Nigeria should be making an average of $32 billion yearly net profit (i.e.20% of ARAMCO), which is not happening. Only people who are versed in Black Magic will understand how the oil business runs in Nigeria. The Nigerian government should simply and squarely focus on regulation, tax and royalty collections. After all, when the British people got lost in the wilderness of financial fiasco, they outsourced the country’s Premiership position to an Indian man. There is no shame in it. This is one instance when Nigeria should disobey motivational speakers who tell us: winners don’t quit and quitters don’t win. Nigeria should quit direct business; we can’t win! However you slice it, vertically or horizontally, Nigeria cannot outwit the oil cabal. NNPCL should be handed over to new “Foster Parents.” If petro dollars are the motivation for politicians for going into politics and the reason behind all the past military coups, then we should cut that umbilical cord. Without fixing the Oil Question holistically, the hope of peaceful transformation will remain a will-o-the-wisp.

(2) Unveil a novel roadmap for re-industrialisation. Strategic partnership with China, building six Industrial Parks, one per geopolitical zone, hosting at least 50 factories in each park, utilising local raw materials in each region in a backward and forward integration would go a long way in outwitting poverty, insecurity and youth unemployment.

America has eight Industrial Parks, UK has seven while South Africa has six. The same way Japan re-industrialised China (China leveraged Japanese superior technology and skill to leapfrog) and America re-industrialised Japan (through the Marshall Aid Plan), China can, and indeed, should be our strategic partner in the quest for re-industrialisation, in a new win-win relationship, unlike what obtains currently. The illegal mining and carting away of Nigeria’s mineral resources must stop. Those companies in China that badly need Nigeria’s raw materials should come and build their factories in Nigeria. The same way crude oil overthrew palm oil, lithium (for EVs) is the new crude oil. Lithium is the in-coming class captain of prosperity. Ekiti, Kogi, Kwara, and Cross River states shouldn’t be poor (ceteris paribus) with their lithium deposit.

(3) President Tinubu must do what President Deng did in China. Deng got Chinese farmers trained in modern farming techniques borrowing from Japan, America and Europe. Against that background, government should adopt Project: 12:10:100 (identify 12 agricultural products – 2 per region, where Nigeria has (or can build) comparative or competitive advantages, then target 10% of the global market share and provide world class overseas training for 100 educated, technology-oriented farmers in each of the 12 core categories. With the CBN single-digit loans, 4th Generation farming technology, 1200 4th Generation farmers, will end up with greater world class quality output than what 100 million traditional farmers are currently producing. In the next three years, Nigeria should target a $50 billion revenue from agriculture exports.

The Netherlands with only 17.5 million people and just 5% of Nigeria’s landmass, earned 50 billion euros from agricultural exports in 2022. By 2026, Nigerians can declare: “who needs the petrol dollars?”

(4) Belt tightening from the top: the platinum lifestyles of the political elites have reached a cancerous stage! Canada and most of the developed countries have only two aircrafts each (Royal Canada Air Force 1&2) in the Royal/presidential fleet. Some presidents (the Dutch and Italian Presidents) ride bicycles. What is Nigeria doing with double digits aircrafts in the presidential fleet, costing over $45 million yearly to maintain? The British Prime Minister’s car is escorted by just three security cars, which is less than the number of cars that escort a local council chairman in Nigeria! The list is endless and scandalous. If the “oxygen mask” (oil subsidy) of the masses must go, the elite must lead by example by tightening their belt, too. The elite should scale-down drastically their lifestyles to reflect the mood of the nation.

Nigeria: The Next Frontier
China has been growing her economy at an average rate of 10% yearly for the past decade and half. If Nigeria crosses all her “T”s and dots all the “I”s, just as UAE created a Platform Economy for Trading, Tourism and Hospitality (TTH) and the whole world responded positively with FDIs, we should create a Manufacturing, Food and Technology Platform (MFT) because the raw materials – youths and arable land are here in abundance.

If we do Project 12:10:100, create six Industrial Parks, attract minimum of 300 foreign companies, remove import duties on all manufacturing equipment to ensure we out-compete China on production cost (we will make our money from export), leveraging the AfCFTA opportunity, etc, nothing says Nigeria cannot grow at 12% yearly from 2025-2035. Keep the grass green, the cattle will come.

Conclusion
As the 16th train sluggishly departed the station, trying to negotiate a dangerous fuel subsidy bend, “what problem is Mr President trying to solve,” I ask? Revenue problem? That is the easiest code to crack: every street in Nigeria is paved with gold. But mind the GAPS! The real challenge is not revenue but the vision, Know-How and willpower gaps, vis-à-vis Nigeria’s structural deformity.

Nigeria is the most balanced, blessed country on earth. All other countries have “retail blessings” (e.g. Saudis have oil but no arable land; Russia has gas but only 35% of the landmass is reasonably habitable due to extreme cold; the Jews have vision but no land, ditto the Singaporeans). But Nigeria has “wholesale blessings,” i.e. “all-in, proportionally.” No tornado, no earthquake, no locust, no Tsunami, great but confused people! Nigeria has all it takes to surpass China’s wealth by 2050, provided we sort out the multitude of confusions that stymie our rising, the same way China is outperforming her erstwhile mentor and tormentor, Japan.

If President Tinubu desires to make Nigeria a first world country, he has to do what UAE’s Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum did: Restructure!

Only one train captain has managed to come out with a 2:2 in Nigeria’s 63 years of existence, the rest are either 3rd class or Ordinary Pass. One captain got OPC (Ordinary Pass, without a Certificate)! (Share your rating)

For instance, the 10th Class Captain, (brilliant, bold, boisterous) trusted the IMF and the World Bank to a fault, and implemented the Structural Adjustment Program (SAP). He came out with a useless 3rd Class certificate. He is full of inner regrets till this day!

The 15th Class Captain, on the other hand, scored F9 in 16 out of the 17 subjects, the only exception being a Credit (C4) in Infrastructure. He was awarded an OPC. What is OPC? (Ordinary Pass, without a Certificate). This means he was certificate-less both at the point of entry and exit – I can hear someone soliloquising in the background.

Was Nigeria’s clock programmed to work counter-clockwise? Yes! Nigeria is suffering from Dissociative Identity Disorder (DID). We are a country in perpetual crisis of identity, searching for meaning of who we truly are. Meanwhile, our authentic nation is more blessed than America, China and Europe. We were born as a bald, harpy eagle, the most powerful bird in the universe that symbolises strength, freedom and immortality. But we are behaving like a fowl, having lost our wings and talons.

Eagles have unspeakable Spirit; they don’t run from storms. Rather, they use stormy wind to soar to higher altitude. Sadly, while it takes 10-12 weeks for eaglets to hone their flight skills and do their own flight out of the nest, Nigeria is still inside the nest 63 years after! At 40s, the eagle voluntarily chooses a painful molting rebirth process (death process) to live up to 70s. Nigeria, too, needs the molting season rebirth to survive. Except and until we write a superior code to vanquish the original code and re-programme Nigeria, the hope and aspiration and even the prayers of getting Nigeria’s eaglet transit to a full eagle will remain elusive, ad infinitum. Mind the GAP, Mr. President!