The business elites that wined and dined the Chinese leader, were, no doubt, oblivious to the Chinese J-10 and J-16 aircraft and helicopters operating off of central Taiwan and to the island’s southwest, crossing over the Taiwan Strait’s median line at will – this was once an unofficial barrier between the two sides – and pushing Taiwanese forces to respond. Monitoring these maneuvers, Taiwan’s military noted the increase in activities like this year-on-year since Xi came to power. As those American elites gave Xi a standing ovation, Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen said that the country faced “mounting military intimidation, gray-zone campaigns, cyber-attacks and information manipulation”, as it geared up for its elections.
The elections, set for January 13th, promise to enflame an already brittle peace, since the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) – despised in Beijing as separatists – look more and more likely to make gains against opposition parties that have failed to band together to form a pro-China alliance, as was expected. President Tsai Ing-wen – barred from running again – is less and less relevant as her Vice President Lai Ching-te moves the DPP presidential bid forward as its nominee for 2024.
While he has already committed to maintain “peace in the Taiwan Straits” and continue Tsai’s careful approach towards Taiwanese-Chinese relations, Lai Ching-Te described himself as a “pragmatic Taiwan independence worker” this past August. His choice of running mate, Bi-khim Hsiao – until recently Taiwan’s lead envoy to Washington and also known for her pro-independence stance – is a remarkably adept move, intended to keep the United States close to Taiwan over coming years.
For Beijing, the DPP ticket is a disaster. A mainland spokesman has warned that any moves towards “Taiwan independence” would mean war.
While the US has long held a position of “strategic ambiguity” – uncertainty as to whether it would defend Taiwan in a war with China – it has become a hallmark of Joe Biden’s presidency that the United States would not stand idly by and permit any attempt to use military force by Beijing against Taiwan. Famously, he said this openly in October 2021, the year that Russia invaded Ukraine. This support for Taiwan is shared on both sides of the House in Congress, where recent years have seen an uptick in American lawmakers visiting and pledging their support for the democratic island.
There is also an uptick in bills or draft bills that mention Taiwan, many of which explicitly side with the island, such as the Taiwan Peace through Strength Act, the Stand with Taiwan Act, the Taiwan Protection and National Resilience Act, the Taiwan Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act, and the Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act, all of which were put forward in 2023. The Biden Administration’s success in transferring Taiwan to its foreign military financing program – normally reserved for sovereign nations – has already boosted the US’ ability to help the Taiwanese defend themselves.
So while American business elites in the San Francisco Hyatt Hotel fancied themselves as peace-makers-for-profit, applauding a leader that the UN has said is responsible for “serious human rights violations”, their efforts are irrelevant to whether there is peace or war in the Indo-Pacific between the world’s largest and second largest powers. The fact is the decisive factor over whether there is war in the Taiwan Strait may boil down to the way that the Taiwan election is fought, won, and lost. And that should make all of us very attentive, and frankly, nervous.
War is coming. The time for doing business with China is finished
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The business elites that wined and dined the Chinese leader, were, no doubt, oblivious to the Chinese J-10 and J-16 aircraft and helicopters operating off of central Taiwan and to the island’s southwest, crossing over the Taiwan Strait’s median line at will – this was once an unofficial barrier between the two sides – and pushing Taiwanese forces to respond. Monitoring these maneuvers, Taiwan’s military noted the increase in activities like this year-on-year since Xi came to power. As those American elites gave Xi a standing ovation, Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen said that the country faced “mounting military intimidation, gray-zone campaigns, cyber-attacks and information manipulation”, as it geared up for its elections.
The elections, set for January 13th, promise to enflame an already brittle peace, since the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) – despised in Beijing as separatists – look more and more likely to make gains against opposition parties that have failed to band together to form a pro-China alliance, as was expected. President Tsai Ing-wen – barred from running again – is less and less relevant as her Vice President Lai Ching-te moves the DPP presidential bid forward as its nominee for 2024.
While he has already committed to maintain “peace in the Taiwan Straits” and continue Tsai’s careful approach towards Taiwanese-Chinese relations, Lai Ching-Te described himself as a “pragmatic Taiwan independence worker” this past August. His choice of running mate, Bi-khim Hsiao – until recently Taiwan’s lead envoy to Washington and also known for her pro-independence stance – is a remarkably adept move, intended to keep the United States close to Taiwan over coming years.
For Beijing, the DPP ticket is a disaster. A mainland spokesman has warned that any moves towards “Taiwan independence” would mean war.
While the US has long held a position of “strategic ambiguity” – uncertainty as to whether it would defend Taiwan in a war with China – it has become a hallmark of Joe Biden’s presidency that the United States would not stand idly by and permit any attempt to use military force by Beijing against Taiwan. Famously, he said this openly in October 2021, the year that Russia invaded Ukraine. This support for Taiwan is shared on both sides of the House in Congress, where recent years have seen an uptick in American lawmakers visiting and pledging their support for the democratic island.
There is also an uptick in bills or draft bills that mention Taiwan, many of which explicitly side with the island, such as the Taiwan Peace through Strength Act, the Stand with Taiwan Act, the Taiwan Protection and National Resilience Act, the Taiwan Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act, and the Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act, all of which were put forward in 2023. The Biden Administration’s success in transferring Taiwan to its foreign military financing program – normally reserved for sovereign nations – has already boosted the US’ ability to help the Taiwanese defend themselves.
So while American business elites in the San Francisco Hyatt Hotel fancied themselves as peace-makers-for-profit, applauding a leader that the UN has said is responsible for “serious human rights violations”, their efforts are irrelevant to whether there is peace or war in the Indo-Pacific between the world’s largest and second largest powers. The fact is the decisive factor over whether there is war in the Taiwan Strait may boil down to the way that the Taiwan election is fought, won, and lost. And that should make all of us very attentive, and frankly, nervous.
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