Wagner boss presumed killed in plane crash: What happens next?

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin was apparently killed in a plane crash on Wednesday evening. 

Neither the Kremlin nor the Russian Ministry of Defence is yet to comment – and Prigozhin’s death still needs to be confirmed – though the incident has shocked Russia and its many onlookers. 

But what happens next? 

What’s the possible political impact of Prigozhin’s reported death?

“The Kremlin has cut the head off the hydra,” Dr Stephen Hall,  lecturer of Russian politics at the University of Bath, tells Euronews, suggesting it was trying to neutralise a possible threat.

“The regime was fearful something like the Wagner uprising could possibly happen again.” 

Yevgeny Prigozhin irked many Kremlin insiders over the pasted months.

He repeatedly – and very publically – lambasted the military establishment’s campaign in Ukraine, while challenging key Kremlin narratives about the conflict.

The Russian MoD hit back and the ensuing struggle saw it try to take over the group – something many claim was the spark of Prigozhin’s June rebellion, where Wagner mercenaries marched on Moscow. 

Many Western analysts and security officials are suggesting Putin and his allies orchestrated Wednesday’s crash – which wiped out a number of senior Wagner figures – yet this cannot be confirmed. 

Hall suggested the target could be Russian elites more generally. 

“Putin sends signals to people,” he said. “I think this is quite a clear signal that this is what happens to traitors.”

Shortly after Prigozhin’s armed mutiny broke out on 24 June, the Russian president denounced the rebellion as “treason” and a “stab in the back”, vowing to avenge it. 

These charges against Prigozhin were soon dropped in a secretive deal that exiled the mercenary force to Belarus. But many speculated it would not be long before the Kremlin went after the mercenary leader. 

“The war is going badly and some elites are dissatisfied. By killing Prigozhin it sends the signal that if you rise up then you’re going to have a very brutal end.” 

Nationalist and patriotic groups in Russia have become increasingly more vocal about their government’s military campaign in Ukraine, often slamming them for mismanagement and botched battlefield manoeuvres. 

Yet Hall said the incident could make the Kremlin “look weak”. 

“Some people will say it’s Putin consolidating power, plausibly. But I think it’s also a testament to a desperate regime… they are trying to send a signal that they will eliminate those who rose up against them… [but this] also highlights elite conspirators are out there.” 

What happens next for Wagner itself?

Question marks have hung over the existence of the mercenary force ever since their abortive mutiny in June. 

Wagner reportedly moved to Belarus in a secretive deal struck between Putin and Prigozhin to avert the rebellion, and have allegedly lost state funding.

“What we’ll see is Wagner is going to either have its name changed and get a new symbol – the Kremlin likes to keep structures it’s already created – or it is going to be disbanded,” said Hall.  

Wagner was established in 2014, during the annexation of Crimea by Russia. Until 2022 it was unclear who the real founders were. There was much media speculation about who created it, though Prigozhin eventually admitted so. 

Earlier this week, the once hot dog seller appeared in his first video address since his abortive mutiny, saying the group was in Africa to make the continent “more free”. 

It is unknown what will happen to Wagner’s operation in Africa, where it is involved in lucrative mining and helping secure weak regimes. 

Some commentators have suggested the Russian state could take over, though this is not clear. 

How could the Russian population react?

Prigozhin hit the headlines continuously throughout the Ukraine war, criticising how the Russian military establishment was conducting its campaign. 

While this made enemies in the halls of power, some ordinary Russians respected his straight-talking. 

It is uncertain how the population will react to his alleged death. 

“It is true that he was popular, particularly amongst more patriotic and nationalist groups, although he certainly wasn’t popular amongst liberals,” said Hall. “But a lot of Russians are going to be quite angry.” 

“Prigozhin died in cold blood.”

“Here is a man who said the war was going badly and the regime is corrupt, and they’ve done away with him,” he added. 

Still, Hall exercised a note of caution. 

“Russian politics has always been mysterious. And boy, for the last 18 months has it been particularly mysterious.”

“We simply don’t know what the future is going to hold in terms of whilst I think we knew Prigozhin’s days were numbered, it was certainly surprising as to how it ended.”