Ukraine war live updates: Putin warned of arrest if he attends summit; Kremlin rejects U.S. claim of 100,000 Russian casualties

Ukrainian servicemen take part in military exercises near Kharkiv as Ukraine prepares for a possible spring push against Russian forces.

Russia was driven out of large parts of the Kharkiv region in September 2022, when Ukraine launched a surprise counteroffensive, the Associated Press reported.

-Dimitar Dilkoff | AFP | Getty Images

Andriy Yermak, the head of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office, reiterated calls for his war-weary nation to join the NATO military alliance.

“The people of Ukraine have made a decision: We want to be in NATO,” Yermak said, adding that Kyiv’s acceptance in the world’s most powerful military alliance would “speed up the end of the war and guarantee peace in Europe.”

“During the full-scale Russian invasion, Ukraine proved that it is able to defend itself and, therefore, it is able to help protect other NATO members,” Yermak said.

In September, roughly seven months after Russian troops poured over Ukraine’s borders, Zelenskyy applied for a fast-track NATO membership. All 31 NATO allies must approve of Ukraine’s membership.

— Amanda Macias

U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns said on Tuesday that China needs to push Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine.

Burns, speaking by video link with the Stimson Center think tank in Washington, D.C., added that a recent phone call from China’s Xi Jinping to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was “a good first step,” but he doesn’t know if China has offered to be a meditator between the two countries.

“China has a very close relationship with Russia, a supportive relationship with Russia,” he noted. “Certainly, we’d like to see China be much more tough-minded in its advice to the Russians, and we’d like to see action to end the war as quickly as possible in terms, of course, that the Ukrainian government can accept.”

He also said that the U.S. has been warning China not to provide lethal military assistance to Russia, and officials have seen no evidence that the Chinese are doing so.

— Michele Luhn

The United Nations has confirmed more than 8,709 civilian deaths and 14,666 injuries in Ukraine since Russia invaded its ex-Soviet neighbor more than a year ago.

The Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights said the death toll in Ukraine is likely higher than its confirmed numbers because the armed conflict can delay fatality reports.

The international organization said most of the civilian casualties recorded were caused by the use of explosive weapons with a wide impact area, including shelling from heavy artillery and multiple launch rocket systems, as well as missiles and airstrikes.

— Amanda Macias

Workers have been building armored vehicles out of various parts at a workshop in Kyiv’s outskirts for medical use as the war in Ukraine continues.

Romanian volunteer Radu Hossu and his team are creating a complex of vehicles that can work in tandem with one another, including a hybrid of a Ford truck and a Soviet-era Gaz chassis that will become an extraction vehicle to remove wounded soldiers from frontline areas even under fire.

“This is basically a Frankenstein vehicle — it doesn’t exist on the planet,” Hossu said. 

— Sergei Supinsky | AFP | Getty Images

The Kremlin rebuffed U.S. intelligence suggesting Russia had suffered around 100,000 casualties in the past five months of fighting in Ukraine, mostly in the east of the country.

Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov told reporters Tuesday that the data was “taken from nowhere.”

“Washington simply does not have the possibility to name any correct figures, they do not have such data. And that is how it should be treated. You should rely only on the data published by the Ministry of Defense of Russia,” he said.

Peskov’s comments come after White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters Sunday that U.S. intelligence estimated that Russia had seen 100,000 casualties in recent months and that the figure included 20,000 dead, half of them from the Wagner mercenary group.

— Holly Ellyatt

Ukraine’s foreign minister said Tuesday that it was only “a matter of time” before the country receives F-16 fighter jets from its Western allies.

Ukraine has repeatedly asked for the jets but the U.S., U.K. and other allies have so far refused to grant fighter aircraft, fearing an escalation in the conflict and the logistical implications of donating such military hardware.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Ukraine’s 1+1 television channel that he believed that receiving F-16s would depend on the outcome of a much-anticipated, forthcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive.

“We will get the F-16. It is a matter of time … I think that this decision by the United States will be related to the outcome of the [Ukrainian] counteroffensive,” he said, according to comments published by news agency Ukrinform.

Kuleba argued that if Ukraine had already been given F-16s, the counteroffensive would have been launched much faster and it would have been possible to save the lives of more Ukrainian soldiers, as well as civilians, as Russian missile strikes continue.

“But, unfortunately, today I have to state that there is no decision on the F-16, but we are moving towards it,” he said.

— Holly Ellyatt

Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Tuesday that boosting the country’s weapons production was necessary as the war with Ukraine progressed.

Speaking to other senior military officials, Shoigu reportedly noted that new weapons produced by the Tactical Missiles Corporation (a state-owned defense company which produces all sorts of missiles and missile systems) were launched, but more are needed.

“For some of the latest types of weapons, the corporation switched to mass production, completing all stages of development in a short time,” Shoigu said, according to Russian state news agency Tass.

He noted that while, on the whole, “the enterprise fulfils the state defense order on time,” it is necessary “to double the volume of production of high-precision weapons in the shortest possible time.”

He noted, however, that Russia’s military-industrial complex is already providing “for the needs of the army and navy,” claiming that weapons produced and purchased increased from last year.

The minister also claimed that Ukraine lost more than 15,000 soldiers, 430 armored vehicles, 277 drones and eight aircraft in April alone. 

“The armed forces of Russia are active along the entire line of contact. Despite the unprecedented military assistance from Western countries, the enemy is suffering significant losses,” Shoigu said.

CNBC was unable to immediately verify the claims made by Shoigu.

— Holly Ellyatt

The head of Ukraine’s ground forces said Monday that some Russian units had abandoned their positions in Bakhmut, a town heavily fought over in the Donetsk region.

General Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Telegram Monday that Ukraine’s forces in the east of the country, around Bakhmut in Donetsk where fighting has been at its most intense for months, continued to defend the area.

“Intense fighting continues in the Bakhmut direction,” Syrskyi said, adding that Russian forces had “launched numerous attacks, trying to break through the defense of our positions in several directions … the enemy’s actions failed,” he said.

Syrskyi said, however, that despite significant losses encountered by Russia, new assault groups of Wagner Group mercenaries as well as “fighters of other private companies and paratroopers are constantly rushing into battle.”

While the situation is “quite complicated,” the military commander said that “at the same time, in some parts of the city, the enemy was counterattacked by our units and left some positions.”

CNBC was unable to verify the information within Syrskyi’s post.

— Holly Ellyatt

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday ordered his government to “clarify” the procedure for how Russian companies can make dividend payments to shareholders from so-called “unfriendly countries.”

Russia considers all countries that have hit it with sanctions over its military campaign in Ukraine to be “unfriendly”. It has hit back with its own package of counter-sanctions and capital controls which restrict the ability of companies and investors from these countries to transfer profits or dividends back home.

The Kremlin said proposals on dividend payments should “include conditions that residents expand their production in Russia, develop businesses based on new technologies and invest in the Russian economy.”

Putin asked the government to come up with proposals by May 20, a document published by the Kremlin said.

Scores of foreign companies have exited the Russian market since Moscow sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine last February, while many others are still trying to wind down their businesses or waiting for approval from a government commission to sell their assets.

The Kremlin triggered fresh fears it could be prepared to nationalize foreign businesses last week with a decree to take “temporary control” of the Russian assets of Finnish energy group Fortum and Germany’s Uniper in a move it said was retaliatory and could be repeated.

— Reuters

Military logistical problems “remain at the heart of Russia’s struggling campaign” in Ukraine, according to the latest intelligence update from the U.K.’s Ministry of Defence.

In a post on Twitter, the ministry commented on recent reports on Russian military-linked social media accounts claiming that Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister, Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev, had been dismissed.

Mizintsev held the military logistics portfolio, and had only been in post for eight months, the ministry noted.

“Mizintsev’s sacking was not immediately confirmed, but speculation about his future highlights how logistics problems remain at the heart of Russia’s struggling campaign in Ukraine. Russia does not have enough munitions to achieve success on the offensive,” the U.K. noted in its daily intelligence update.

“Paucity of ammunition drives internal divisions, most notably between Russia’s Ministry of Defence and Wagner Group,” the ministry noted.

“Russia continues to give the highest priority to mobilising its defence industry, but it is still failing to meet war time demands. While Russia’s political leaders persist in demanding success on the battlefield, Russia’s logistics professionals are stuck in the middle,” the ministry added.

— Holly Ellyatt

Russian President Vladimir Putin was warned he could be arrested if he attends a BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) summit in South Africa in August.

Authorities in the country warned that they would be compelled to detain the president after a warrant for his arrest issued in March by the International Criminal Court in The Hague.

South Africa’s Sunday Times newspaper, citing sources in the country’s government, said that a special government commission established by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa to look into the international arrest warrant concluded that the country would have no choice but to arrest Putin if he traveled to South Africa for the summit.

“We have no option not to arrest Putin,” a government official told The Sunday Times. “If he comes here, we will be forced to detain him.”

Putin was expected to travel to the summit, although the Kremlin had not confirmed his attendance, to meet with the leaders of BRICs.

The newspaper reported that officials were trying to find a way around the diplomatic dilemma, with Putin’s “virtual” attendance via videolink being mooted as a possible workaround.

The paper’s sources said that “the only option we have is for [Putin] to participate in the summit via Teams or Zoom from Moscow.”

— Holly Ellyatt

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged the country’s international allies to uphold sanctions on Russia after a series of pre-dawn missile strikes over the last few days.

On Sunday, Zelenskyy said on his Telegram channel that “it is very important that Russia receives ever stronger signals that the world will not forgive any of Russia’s acts of terror. And that as many global players as possible are absolutely principled in upholding the sanctions regime against Russia.”

Zelenskyy’s comments came amid a wave of Russian missile attacks on Ukraine. Early on Friday, Russian strikes hit several cities across the country, killing at least 23 people and injuring many others,

Before dawn on Sunday, Russia launched another series of missile attacks aimed at Ukrainian cities. At least 34 people, including five children, were injured as a result of an attack on Pavlohrad, near the city of Dnipro in central Ukraine. During one attack on the northern region of Chernihiv, a 14 year-old boy died.

— Holly Ellyatt

The White House on Monday estimated that Russia’s military has suffered 100,000 casualties in the last five months in fighting in the Bakhmut region and other areas of Ukraine.

White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters the figure, based on U.S. intelligence estimates, included more than 20,000 dead, half of them from the Wagner mercenary group, which includes convicts released from prison to join the fighting.

“Russia’s attempt at a winter offensive in the Donbas largely through Bakhmut has failed,” Kirby said.

“Last December, Russia initiated a broad offensive across multiple lines of advance, including toward Vuhledar, Avdiivka, Bakhmut, and Kreminna. Most of these efforts stalled and failed. Russia has been unable to seize any strategically significant territory.”

He said the Russians have made some incremental gains in Bakhmut but that this has come at a “terrible, terrible cost” and that Ukraine’s defenses in the region remain strong.

“Russia has exhausted its military stockpiles and its armed forces,” Kirby said.

Most of the Wagner mercenary group’s soldiers were “Russian convicts thrown into combat in Bakhmut without sufficient combat or training, combat leadership, or any sense of organizational command and control”, he said.

“It’s really stunning, these numbers,” Kirby added, saying the total is three times the number of American casualties in the Guadalcanal campaign in World War Two. Kirby said another U.S. weapons package for Ukraine would be announced soon.

— Reuters