Kyiv should rethink its war strategy, moving from attack to defence and setting itself up for ceasefire talks if it wants to keep the support of the West, analysts have argued. 

In an article for Foreign Affairs, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, Richard Haass, and former National Security Council official, Charles Kupchan, say political willingness to support the war has “begun to erode” in the US and Europe. 

At the same time, they say Ukraine’s counteroffensive appears to have stalled – meaning Kyiv must rethink its strategy.

This reveals an “uncomfortable truth”, they say, “that Ukraine and the West are on an unsustainable trajectory, one characterised by a glaring mismatch between ends and the available means”. 

The analysts say the US should now lead efforts to forge a new policy with “attainable goals” – for example, one which centres on negotiating a ceasefire with Russia and switching its military emphasis from offence to defence. 

‘Near-term priorities need to shift’

“Kyiv would not give up on restoring territorial integrity or holding Russia economically and legally accountable for its aggression, but it would acknowledge that its near-term priorities need to shift from attempting to liberate more territory to defending and repairing the more than 80% of the country that is still under its control,” the authors say.

They argue this shift would limit losses of Ukrainian soldiers, allow it to direct more resources to long-term defence and reconstruction, and also shore up Western support.

It would also stop Russia from believing it can outlast the West’s willingness to support Ukraine, they say.

“That realisation may eventually convince Moscow to move from the battlefield to the negotiating table – a move that would be to Ukraine’s ultimate advantage, since diplomacy offers the most realistic path for ending not only the war but also, over the long term, Russia’s occupation of Ukrainian territory,” they say. 

The suggestion is an uncomfortable and controversial one, and similar strategies have been rejected by Ukrainian officials. 

But the analysts add: “The West should not press Ukraine to give up on restoring its 1991 borders or on holding Russia responsible for the death and destruction that its invasion has caused. 

“Yet it must seek to convince Ukrainians that they need to adopt a new strategy to pursue these objectives.”