The showdown between Beijing and Washington will intensify with Canada possibly playing a moderating role, a former UN Security Council head told the Global Business Forum in Banff on Thursday.

But there’s no question, said Kishore Mahbubani, that this century will be dominated economically and geopolitically by Asia — “a return to a normal state of affairs, because in 1,800 of the past 2,000 years, the two largest economies in the world were China and India.”

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Canada is fated to follow the lead of its close U.S. ally in that tug of war but can act as a positive bridging influence, said the man who led the crucial UN council in 2001-02.

“Canada relies for its security on the U.S., so I can’t imagine Canada swimming in a different direction,” said Mahbubani, a prominent academic and Singaporean national known as the “muse of Asia.”.

“Canada can play a useful role . . . in moderating the contest and focus on common challenges.”

The most obvious part for Canada to play, he said, is finding common ground between the two world giants on tackling climate change, what he called the world’s foremost challenge.

That could temper an inevitable acceleration of the geopolitical contest between the world’s two largest economies — the U.S. and China respectively — said the diplomat and distinguished fellow with the Asia Research Institute.

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And China is destined to displace the U.S. in that ranking, he said.

“I have no doubt this contest will accelerate in the next 10 to 20 years . . . the world’s No. 1 power will always push down, it’s perfectly natural,” said Mahbubani, who spoke to the forum virtually.

“Even if (China) gets to one-quarter of the per-capita income of the U.S., it will have a larger economy.”

He said predictions of China’s economic demise have been greatly exaggerated for the past 30 years, adding the Asian behemoth of 1.42 billion people has historical momentum.

Tensions between western countries and China over Beijing’s claims on Taiwan and disputes over international waters have risen in recent months, with militaries — including Canada’s — engaged in a daily showdown.

But Mahbubani said he doubts war will result since a full-on confrontation could end in a nuclear exchange.

“In a nuclear war you have no winner,” he said.

Canada’s relationship with India ‘in a nosedive’: former UN chief

Mahbubani noted Canada’s fraught relations with both China and India — the latter exacerbated by Ottawa’s claims New Delhi appears to have had a hand in the assassination last June of a Sikh separatist leader in B.C.

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Many observers now fear Canada’s trading prospects with India and its 1.425 billion people have been severely damaged by the rift, with Canada standing to lose the most.

“I’m not sure exactly what happened in the past few days with your relationship with India, it’s in a nosedive and will take years to recover,” he said.

But if Canada can’t make trade inroads with China or India, it can approach the 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), said Mahbubani.

“In 2000, Japan was the second-largest economy in the world, Japan was eight times bigger than ASEAN . . . within 10 years, ASEAN will be bigger than Japan.”

“ASEAN is the most successful regional organization in the whole world . . . don’t look to China or India for the key, come to ASEAN, we will lay out the red carpet for you.”

Adapting to Asia’s complexity critical for Canada

U.S. trade with ASEAN in 2000 was $135 billion, but by last year it had grown to $440 billion, he said. With China, it was $975 billion last year, the planet’s largest economic relationship.

ASEAN member Vietnam is destined to be “a superstar, the next Japan or South Korea,” Mahbubani said.

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“Never look for a single point of entry, there are many,” said Mahbubani, adding adapting to Asia’s complexity is critical for Canada.

The Global Business Forum at the Fairmont Banff Springs Conference Centre, which ends Friday, features speakers presenting on issues such as global food security, artificial intelligence, the energy transition, critical minerals and the Indian economy.

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