Thriving US dollar continues to weigh on wheat

Recap for January 3

• The US dollar’s rise to a two-month high made export prospects for US commodities more expensive, and wheat futures were mostly lower as a result. Improved winter wheat condition ratings in the top hard red winter wheat production state of Kansas added further pressure. Buoyed by short covering but limited by Brazilian rains and weather projections, soybean futures rose Wednesday from multi-month lows. Corn futures followed Tuesday’s sell-off with short covering and technical buying, ending the day mostly unchanged. March corn futures ticked up 1½¢ to close at $4.65¼ per bu; later months were narrowly mixed but mostly higher. Chicago March wheat dropped 6½¢ to close at $6.00¼ per bu. Kansas City March wheat fell 7½¢ to close at $6.21½ per bu; furthest deferred 2025 contracts were narrowly higher. Minneapolis March wheat lost 6½¢ to close at $7.08½ per bu. March soybeans added 3½¢ to close at $12.77 per bu. March soybean meal was up 90¢ to close at $380.40 per ton. March soybean oil edged up 0.31¢ to close at 48.60¢ a lb.

• US equity markets fell Wednesday. Declines were attributed by some investors to a natural follow-up to the stock and bond rallies of late 2023. The year-opening weakness came even as fresh economic data suggested a gradual cooling of the US economy. The Institute for Supply Management said manufacturing activity fell slightly in December from the month before, though less than economists had forecast. The US Department of Labor said there were 8.8 million job openings in November, down from a recent peak of 12 million in March 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 284.85 points, or 0.76%, to close at 37,430.19. The Standard & Poor’s 500 was down 38.02 points, or 0.8%, to close at 4,704.81. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 173.73 points, or 1.18%, to close at 14,592.21.

• The US crude oil price downtrend paused Wednesday. The February W.T.I. sweet crude future was up $2.32 to close at $72.70 per barrel. 

• The US dollar index continued higher Wednesday for a fourth consecutive trading day. 

• US gold futures on Wednesday reverted to their downside stance posted at the end of 2023. The February contract dropped $30.60 to close at $2,042.80 per oz.

Recap for January 2

• A strengthening dollar helped pull most agricultural commodity futures lower Tuesday on the inaugural trading day of 2024. Traders monitoring Black Sea supply risks sold futures, which pulled European wheat prices lower. Soybean futures were lower as northern Brazil’s rains helped improve moisture and crop conditions with forecast for more rain this week. That offset StoneX’s chop to its estimate for Brazil’s crop to 152.8 million tonnes from 161.9 million. Brazil’s soaking sent US corn futures to contract lows. March corn futures were 7½¢ lower to close at $4.63¾ per bu. Chicago March wheat dropped 21¼¢ to close at $6.06¾ per bu. Kansas City March wheat shed 13¢ to close at $6.29 per bu. Minneapolis March wheat lost 8½¢ to close at $7.15 per bu. March soybeans dropped 19½¢ to close at $12.74 per bu. March soybean meal was down $7.10 to close at $378.90 per ton. March soybean oil eased 0.05¢ to close at 47.79¢ a lb, though all subsequent months were higher.

• US equity markets were mixed Tuesday, the Dow industrials index posting another record-high close while shares of big technology firms such as Apple and Nvidia pulled the Nasdaq lower. The S&P 500 closed lower as declining tech and telecom stocks offset gains in shares of energy, health care, utilities and consumer staple companies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 25.5 points, or 0.07%, to close at 37,715.04. The Standard & Poor’s 500 was down 27 points, or 0.57%, to close at 4,742.83. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 245.41 points, or 1.63%, to close at 14,765.94.

• US crude oil prices continued lower at the dawn of 2024. The February W.T.I. sweet crude future was down $1.27 to close at $70.38 per barrel. 

• The US dollar index continued higher Tuesday as trading resumed. 

• US gold futures reversed their end-of-year trajectory and closed higher Tuesday. The February contract added $1.60 to close at $2,073.40 per oz.

Recap for December 29

• Wheat futures posted narrow, mixed changes Friday ahead of the New Year’s Day holiday but were up for the week as concerns about export demand were more than offset by increased strife in the Russia-Ukraine war. Corn and soybean futures were lower for the day and for the week on improved weather prospects for Brazil’s corn and soybean crops. For the year, nearby corn futures were down about 30% from a year earlier, Chicago wheat was down about 20% and soybean futures were down 15%. March corn futures were 3¢ lower to close at $4.71¼ per bu. Chicago March wheat declined 3½¢ to close at $6.28½ per bu; later months were narrowly mixed. Kansas City March wheat slipped 1¾¢ to close at $6.42 per bu; later months were narrowly mixed. Minneapolis March wheat lost 2¢ to close at $7.23½ per bu. March soybeans dropped 14¢ to close at $12.98 per bu. March soybean meal was down $4.70 to close at $386 per ton. March soybean oil gained 0.20¢ to close at 48.18¢ a lb.

• US equity indexes closed with small to modest losses Friday due mainly to profit taking but posted double-digit growth for the year and were near record highs as traders anticipated an easing monetary policy and lower interest rates in 2024. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 20.56 points, or 0.05%, to close at 37,689.54. The Standard & Poor’s 500 was down 13.52 points, or 0.28%, to close at 4,769.83. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 83.78 points, or 0.56%, to close at 15,011.35.

• US crude oil prices edged lower Friday. The February sweet crude future was down 0.12¢ at $71.65 per barrel. 

• The US dollar index advanced again on Friday. 

• US gold futures ended the last trading session of 2023 on a downward slide. The February contract lost $11.70 to close at $2,071.80 per oz.

Recap for December 28

• Wheat futures advanced on Thursday after a second incident this week in the Black Sea raised concerns about safe exports of grain from Ukraine. The incident involved a Panama flagged vessel heading to load grain at a River Danube port hitting a Russian mine. Corn and soy complex futures were lower on beneficial rains in Brazil. March corn futures were down 2¼¢ to close at $4.74¼ per bu. Chicago March wheat added 8½¢ to close at $6.31½ per bu. Kansas City March wheat gained 8¾¢ to close at $6.43¾ per bu. Minneapolis March wheat rose 3¾¢ to close at $7.25½ per bu. March soybeans dropped 8½¢ to close at $13.12 per bu. March soybean meal was down $3.10 to close at $390.70 per ton. March soybean oil lost 0.68¢ to close at 47.98¢ a lb.

• US equity indexes closed mixed on Thursday. The S&P 500 continued to inch closer to an all-time high, and all three indexes were on track to conclude a ninth consecutive week of gains. The jobless claims report issued earlier today provided further proof that the economy was effectively cooling, indicating 218,000 layoffs occurred last week, which was slightly higher than economists were expecting but not enough to quell the bubble of optimism that’s been fueling the recent surge in stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 53.58 points, or 0.14%, to close at 37,710.10. The Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 1.77 points, or 0.04%, to close at 4,783.35. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 4.04 points lower, or 0.03%, to close at 15,095.14.

• US crude oil prices were lower Thursday. The February sweet crude future was down 2.34¢ at $71.77 per barrel. 

• The US dollar index advanced Thursday. 

• US gold futures declined Thursday. The February contract lost $9.60 to close at $2,083.50 per oz.

Recap for December 27

• Wheat futures declined Wednesday on ideas export demand for US wheat still was lacking, mostly offsetting higher futures prices Tuesday on increased tension in the Russia-Ukraine war. Fresh export demand also was lacking for US corn and soybeans with markets moving mostly on weather events and forecasts in Brazil. March corn futures lost 3¾¢ to close at $4.76½ per bu. Chicago March wheat fell 13¼¢ to close at $6.23 per bu. Kansas City March wheat dropped 7¾¢ to close at $6.35 per bu. Minneapolis March wheat gave back 7½¢ to close at $7.21¾ per bu. March soybeans gained 1½¢ to close at $13.20½ per bu, but later months were narrowly mixed. March soybean meal was down $2.10 to close at $393.80 per ton. March soybean oil ticked up 0.15¢ to close at 48.66¢ a lb, but later months were mixed.

• US equity indexes on Wednesday continued their streak of closing higher this week. The S&P 500 inched closer to an all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 111.19 points, or 0.30%, to close at 37,656.52. The Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 6.83 points, or 0.14%, to close at 4,781.58. The Nasdaq Composite gained 24.60 points, or 0.16%, to close at 15,099.18.

• US crude oil prices dropped as ocean vessels continued to transit the Suez Cannel despite recent terrorist attacks. The February sweet crude future was down 1.46¢ to close at $74.11 per barrel. 

• The US dollar index declined again on Wednesday. 

• US gold futures were sharply higher Wednesday. The February contract jumped $23.30 to close at $2,093.10 per oz.