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The latest non-farm payrolls data is out, and once again it thumped expectations with 253,000 jobs added in April. Basically, if there’s a recession coming someone forgot to tell the US economy.
After playing around on the Bloomberg terminal we discovered that this is actually the 13th straight month where US job creation has surpassed the median forecasts of economist polled by the Borg.
In fact, since the beginning of 2022 NFPs have beaten predictions every month save March 2022. Over that period the US economy has added nearly 6mn jobs, compared to the cumulative 4.2mn jobs forecast by economists.
Now, being mostly wrong for more than a year isn’t going to change the view of many economists that have nailed their flags to the recession mast. As LPL Financial’s chief economist Jeffrey Roach says in an emailed comment:
The economy added 253,000 payroll jobs in April, higher than expected and perhaps the last strong report before the economy slides into recession. Last month was revised downward, perhaps a signal that job growth is set to slow in the coming months.
Or Nationwide’s chief economist Kathy Bostjancic:
The strong performance of the labor market dampens expectations of an immediate recession, but it also should reduce the market expectations of rate cuts unfolding as soon as the third quarter. Our view remains that a recession remains on the horizon, unfolding in the second half of the year, but the ongoing solid job gains and buoyancy in wage growth does suggest it could start later in the year.
Ok ok, we’ll see.
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