From the perspective of what the SNP claims to care about above all else – securing and winning a second referendum for an independent Scotland – the figures from this week’s Gers report should have been shouted from the rooftops. Instead, the response was reserved.
The SNP’s Wellbeing Economy Secretary Neil Gray gave an understated nod to Scotland’s “vibrant energy sector” which made this progress possible – perhaps the least controversial way of saying out loud what the SNP are loath to admit right now, that the drop in the deficit is largely thanks to measurably higher revenue collected from North Sea oil and gas production.
During the first referendum in 2014, this was exactly this kind of revenue that SNP leaders declared the country could count on to keep an independent Scotland afloat. But having entered a pact with the Scottish Greens to retain a grasp on power, the SNP now finds itself in a bind: in order to have any chance in an IndyRef2, the party has to play down the wealth that can come from country’s natural reserves – reserves it relies on to make the fiscal case for leaving the United Kingdom.
The Gers report is very clear in its findings from the past year: it is thanks to revenue from North Sea reserves that “revenue per person” was higher in Scotland than it was across the UK.
Tax revenue was £15,967 per person in Scotland, almost £700 more than the average in the UK; but without the extra revenue from the windfall tax, the weight of contribution shifts, estimated to have been £859 higher across the UK compared to Scotland.
This flip is an important part of the narrative for the SNP, not least because government spending on residents in Scotland remains significantly higher per person, at £19,459 a year (more than £2,200 the average spend across the UK).
In a country where university tuition fees remain free (i.e. taxpayer funded) for Scots, and where junior doctors have just been given an above-inflation pay raise of 12.4pc, it is helpful to be able to say that your heavy-spending tendencies are backed up by increasing revenue.
As it happens, this influx in revenue is likely to be temporary, as the gains from the windfall tax will wane as prices return to pre-pandemic levels.
Moreover, the tax itself is likely to have a diminishing impact on Scotland’s future revenue from its energy sectors, as some of the major oil and gas companies have already suggested they will review future investment strategies due to the UK’s increasingly volatile tax regime.
The SNP’s alliance with the Greens has no doubt put pressure on successive first ministers to lambast the oil and gas sector, despite the country’s reliance on these resources.
The SNP has made Scotland too poor to be independent
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From the perspective of what the SNP claims to care about above all else – securing and winning a second referendum for an independent Scotland – the figures from this week’s Gers report should have been shouted from the rooftops. Instead, the response was reserved.
The SNP’s Wellbeing Economy Secretary Neil Gray gave an understated nod to Scotland’s “vibrant energy sector” which made this progress possible – perhaps the least controversial way of saying out loud what the SNP are loath to admit right now, that the drop in the deficit is largely thanks to measurably higher revenue collected from North Sea oil and gas production.
During the first referendum in 2014, this was exactly this kind of revenue that SNP leaders declared the country could count on to keep an independent Scotland afloat. But having entered a pact with the Scottish Greens to retain a grasp on power, the SNP now finds itself in a bind: in order to have any chance in an IndyRef2, the party has to play down the wealth that can come from country’s natural reserves – reserves it relies on to make the fiscal case for leaving the United Kingdom.
The Gers report is very clear in its findings from the past year: it is thanks to revenue from North Sea reserves that “revenue per person” was higher in Scotland than it was across the UK.
Tax revenue was £15,967 per person in Scotland, almost £700 more than the average in the UK; but without the extra revenue from the windfall tax, the weight of contribution shifts, estimated to have been £859 higher across the UK compared to Scotland.
This flip is an important part of the narrative for the SNP, not least because government spending on residents in Scotland remains significantly higher per person, at £19,459 a year (more than £2,200 the average spend across the UK).
In a country where university tuition fees remain free (i.e. taxpayer funded) for Scots, and where junior doctors have just been given an above-inflation pay raise of 12.4pc, it is helpful to be able to say that your heavy-spending tendencies are backed up by increasing revenue.
As it happens, this influx in revenue is likely to be temporary, as the gains from the windfall tax will wane as prices return to pre-pandemic levels.
Moreover, the tax itself is likely to have a diminishing impact on Scotland’s future revenue from its energy sectors, as some of the major oil and gas companies have already suggested they will review future investment strategies due to the UK’s increasingly volatile tax regime.
The SNP’s alliance with the Greens has no doubt put pressure on successive first ministers to lambast the oil and gas sector, despite the country’s reliance on these resources.
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