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It has long been one of the most highly-billed games at this Rugby World Cup and the stakes could not be higher for Ireland and Scotland as they fight for a place in the quarter-finals in Paris.
Both sides could still qualify for the last eight and could even progress together, but they are both also at risk of being dumped out of the tournament in the pool stages. With South Africa also in the mix to qualify from Pool B, one of the world’s top five teams will be on a plane home far earlier than they’d hoped.
It is set to be a very nervous watch for both sets of fans and, as is often the case at the business end of the pool stages, it could prove to be a bit of a numbers game for supporters, with all sorts of permutations and chat about bonus points and points difference flying about before kick-off.
All those numbers can get confusing, so to help you out, we’ve worked out what each side needs from Saturday night’s game to make it through to the knockout stages. The individual breakdowns for each side, as well as all the possible scenarios in the Ireland v Scotland match, can be found below.
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Ireland
Andy Farrell’s men are the heavy favourites to win in Paris and will definitely finish top of Pool B and go through to the quarter-finals with either a win or a draw against Scotland.
However, they could also go through even if they lose to Scotland. A Scottish bonus-point win could still see Ireland progress if they pick up a losing bonus point of their own and things go their way in terms of points difference. That result would see all teams tied on 15 points and if Scotland win either by a margin of 21 or more points, or by a difference of just four points, Ireland will go through in second place behind either Gregor Townsend’s men or South Africa respectively, based on who has the superior points difference.
Ireland could also progress if Scotland fail to secure a bonus point win and Farrell’s side pick up one or more of their own losing bonus points. Likewise, if Scotland get a bonus point win but Ireland score four tries and lose by fewer than seven points, the men in green will go through.
Scotland
The Scots have the most to do and are really up against it in the French capital, as they must beat the world number ones to go through to the last eight of the tournament, and even then it might not be enough.
For Gregor Townsend’s men to qualify, the most basic scenario is they beat Ireland by eight points or more, with Ireland not picking up a single losing bonus point in the process.
However, things get slightly more complicated if Scotland get five points by winning and scoring four tries, while Ireland secure one losing bonus point. Such a result would l take Pool B to a tiebreaker, with Scotland, Ireland and South Africa all finishing on the same number of points. In that scenario, they would need to win by a margin of five or more points to progress.
As above, a win may not even be enough for Scotland, as they would be eliminated if they fail to get a bonus point and Ireland score one or two of their own losing bonus points. Even if they do get a bonus point win, the Scots will be on the plane home if Ireland get two losing bonus points of their own.
South Africa
The Springboks have now done all they can, winning three of their four games in the pool stages, with victories over Scotland, Romania and Tonga coming either side of their narrow loss to Ireland.
They now sit at the top of Pool B on 15 points after earning a bonus-point win and a 31-point margin of victory against the Tongans, and will progress to the quarter-finals as long as one very specific outcome doesn’t materialise in Saturday night’s game.
South Africa will be knocked out if Scotland score four tries and beat Ireland by 21 points while Farrell’s side score four tries of their own to earn a losing bonus point.
Such a result would see all three teams finish on 15 points in the group. In that situation, who goes through will first be decided by points difference, with Scotland progressing top with the highest.
Ireland would also make it through in second by virtue of having won their head-to-head match with the Boks, with Jacques Nienaber’s men eliminated in the pool stage for the first time ever.
All the possible Ireland v Scotland scenarios
Ireland win: Ireland are through, Scotland are out.
Draw: Ireland are through and Scotland are out.
Scotland five points, Ireland none: Scotland go through and Ireland are out.
Scotland five points with a winning margin of 21, Ireland one: Both Scotland and Ireland go through. Scotland would top the group with such a winning margin, with Ireland going through in second.
Scotland five points with a winning margin of 20, Ireland one: Scotland go through and Ireland are out. In this case, Scotland and South Africa would finish on exactly the same points difference, so it would go down to try difference. Ireland would qualify if Scotland’s try difference improved by three or more as a result of their win. In this case South Africa would get eliminated.
Scotland five points, Ireland one with a points difference of 5-19: Scotland go through and Ireland are out. This is because, with all three teams tied on points, South Africa would go through with the best points difference with Scotland in second after winning the head-to-head with Ireland.
Scotland five points, Ireland one with a points difference of 0-4: Ireland go through and Scotland are out. Ireland would have the best points difference, while South Africa would go through in second place after winning the head-to-head with Scotland.
Scotland five points, Ireland two: Ireland go through and Scotland are out.
Scotland four, Ireland none: Scotland are through and Ireland are out.
Scotland four, Ireland one: Ireland are through and Scotland are out.
Scotland four points, Ireland two: Ireland are through and Scotland are out.
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