No one has so far claimed that the retired Navy officers are innocent – not even the Ministry of External Affairs, whose representatives met with the convicted officers while they were under trial. Is it the assessment of the government then that they are guilty as charged, and now the effort should be to somehow save their lives?

Media reports suggest that India will follow a two-fold strategy. Firstly, appealing the death sentence in a higher court in Qatar – but not the charges themselves and second, petitioning the Emir of Qatar to pardon the officers without raising the question of their guilt. 

A former Indian envoy to Qatar has expressed hope of the sentence being mitigated, pointing out that the Emirate rarely carries out death sentences. Its superior courts have changed death sentences to life sentences in several cases, including one of espionage against three Filipinos in 2015. He suggested several options, from appealing the verdict and mercy petition to the last resort of moving the International Court of Justice (ICJ). All options relate to saving lives without denying the charges. Perhaps commentators, too, are forced to go by the court verdict.

Another strange aspect of the case is the allegation that the convicted officers were working for Israel. Though they were arrested in August 2022, no specific charges against them have been made public by Qatar. The purported link with Israel was revealed to the Indian media by an unnamed intelligence officer who, in April 2023, claimed that the Qataris insisted that “intelligence on their submarine programme was passed on to Israel.” This, he said, was apparently based on evidence of intercepted electronic communication.  

Qatar had signed a Memorandum of Understanding in 2020 with Fincantieri SpA of Italy for producing stealth mini-submarines — a version of the Italian U212 “Near Future Submarine” — that could escape radar detection. This was part of a larger project, including the construction of a naval base and fleet maintenance. The retired Indian Navy officers worked for an Omani company, Dahra Global Technologies and Consulting Services, which advised the Qatari Navy. The MoU for building the stealth submarines was reportedly not implemented.

However, the allegation of spying for Israel makes little sense, even assuming that the retired Indian officers had access to the stealth submarine negotiations. All but one had served as officers of the rank of Commanders and Captain. In addition to their comfortable pensions from the Indian Navy, they were presumably earning fairly attractive salaries from their Omani employer. There would be little monetary reason to take up the highly risky endeavour of espionage for Israel, especially for all eight of them. 

Had Qatar claimed that the navy officers were working for Indian intelligence agencies, although egregious, the charge might have seemed credible because Pakistan already operates midget submarines manufactured in Italy. Media reports have moreover suggested that India has concerns about Pakistan acquiring stealth submarine technology.

There is some speculation in the Indian media that Qatar was tipped off by Pakistan. It was Pakistani social media forums that broke the news about espionage charges after more than two months of detention. Pakistani newspapers have been warning from as early as April this year that the men faced a possible death sentence, with The Express Tribune claiming, “The accused have been identified as working for the Indian intelligence agency, RAW (Research and Analysis Wing).”

The parallels with the Jadhav case are far-fetched. No one in Qatar has publicly alleged that the naval officers were working for Indian intelligence. Nor does India see Qatar as a security threat to facilitate espionage against its interests. India does have an intelligence-sharing agreement with Israel (signed in July 2014) aimed at fighting Islamic terrorism in the region. However, that does not entail spying on a friendly country. 

Perhaps the issue will eventually be resolved diplomatically. The exact charges and evidence against the benighted naval officers may never come to light if Qatar, for example, shares only a redacted court order with India. And that might make it harder to appeal the verdict.

Given India’s multifaceted ties with Qatar, there is no question of raising Islamophobic rhetoric against it, although Qatar is close to Hamas and housed the Taliban office in Doha. There are also nearly eight lakh Indian expatriates working in Qatar, and India cannot risk saying or doing anything that might jeopardise their employment. 

Could the timing of the Qatar court verdict be aimed at forcing India to clear the confusion about its position on the Israel-Hamas war? An outside observer might well be baffled by the prime minister’s tweet in support of Israel’s war on October 7, while the Ministry of External Affairs reiterated India’s traditional position of a two-state solution five days later. 

India abstained on a resolution in the UN General Assembly’s 10th Emergency Session last weekend because it did not condemn Hamas. The resolution called for an immediate humanitarian truce in the Israel-Hamas conflict, leading to a cessation of hostilities and ensuring unhindered humanitarian access in the Gaza strip. This could potentially bring the heat from the Arab countries far more intensely than Western nations were able to mobilise against India for ambiguity on Russia’s war on Ukraine. 

The truth in matters of espionage, especially involving third countries, however, is often like peeling an onion. Each layer uncovers another layer of truth.