Dutch voters have a wide range of parties to choose from when they enter polling stations for a crunch general election on November 22.

No fewer than 26 parties are on the ballot in most regions – a totally different prospect from the United States, France or Britain for example, where voters select from only a handful of options.

Who are the key players?

Polls suggest the center-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), the upstart New Social Contract (NSC) or the left-wing Green-Social Democrat coalition is likely to come out on top.

Top candidates have gone on the offensive in the final days of the vote, with late polls showing Labour leader Frans Timmermans and anti-Islam politician Geert Wilders of the Party for Freedom (PVV) making gains.

A first-place finish for Timmermans could swing the next government toward the center and instigate more spending on climate policies, while first place for Wilders might bring a hard-right coalition with a strong anti-immigration line.

Either would mean an upset for Dilan Yesilgoz, caretaker Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s successor as leader of the pro-business VVD Party, who has been the frontrunner for much of the campaign and has a realistic chance of becoming the country’s first woman prime minister. 

READ MORE

‘A child is killed every 10 minutes in Gaza’

World on track for 2.5-2.9 degree Celsius temperature rise

Sweden’s innovative recycling center

In the election campaign, Turkish-born Yesilgoz, 46, has distanced herself from Rutte, who has led the country for more than a decade.

She is campaigning to limit migration and says her own experience of fleeing to the Netherlands as an eight-year-old with Turkish Kurdish human rights activist parents informs her views.

Yesilgoz, who serves as Justice Minister, is often characterized as more media savvy than policy expert. 

Meanwhile, the newly launched centrist reform party NSC trailed in fourth place in the final opinion poll before voting, with a projected 21 seats. With 76 seats needed for a majority, lengthy coalition talks look inevitable.

One of the Netherlands’ longest serving parliamentarians Pieter Omtzigt, 49, long seen as a policy wonk, reinvented himself as the political conscience of the country.

He broke with the Christian Democrats in 2021, and founded his own NSC party in August. 

Omtzigt has positioned himself as a centrist: conservative on immigration and climate change but leftist on reducing poverty and improving healthcare. His party’s top goal is reforming lawmaking and policy.

What are the people voting on?

Major issues for Dutch voters include how to respond to climate change, the rising cost of living, and a desire to restrict immigration.

“The focal point of Dutch politics has always been slightly to the right of center… so that will likely not change and may even increase,” said Tom Louwerse of Leiden University. “Exactly how that will translate into coalitions is still unclear.”

Who is most likely to win?

The most recent opinion poll published by I&O Research forecast Yesilgoz’s VVD and Timmermans’ Labour/Green Left level on 27 seats each in the 150-member Dutch parliament, and Wilders’ Freedom Party ahead with 28 seats – a statistical tie, given the poll has a margin of error of three seats in either direction.

The VVD and New Social Contract are almost certain to make up part of the next government, with either Freedom or Labour, who will not work with each other, as the third member of a coalition.

Analysts said that given large numbers of undecided voters, much will depend on recent debate performances.

The election became necessary when Rutte’s previous government collapsed in July over disagreements on how to restrict an influx of asylum-seekers. Rutte later said he would leave Dutch politics.

Wilders, a populist known for saying the Koran should be banned and calling for “fewer” Moroccans in the Netherlands, has sought to soften his image in hopes of entering government.

Opposition to “Islam will never leave our DNA, but the priority is now on other matters,” he said last week.

Yesilgoz, who had not ruled out a coalition with Wilders and had focused on Timmermans as her main opponent, has begun backtracking.

“Every day it’s a mystery which Geert Wilders you’ll encounter,” she said on Monday. On Tuesday she ruled out serving in a cabinet in which Wilders is prime minister.

The party that wins the most seats traditionally takes a lead in negotiations and provides the prime minister – but that is not guaranteed under the Dutch system.

Rutte will remain in a caretaker role until a new cabinet is installed sometime in 2024.

Subscribe to Storyboard: A weekly newsletter bringing you the best of CGTN every Friday