The house price ‘Hail Mary’ that could boost Sunak’s election hopes

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Capital Economics now expects price growth of 3pc this year, having previously forecast a 1.5pc drop.

Pantheon Macroeconomics has also forecast that house prices will rise by 5pc between April and December this year.

Faster-than-expected drops in inflation mean analysts expect much earlier interest rate cuts from the Bank of England. 

This optimism has fuelled a mortgage price war as lenders jump on the prospect of lower borrowing costs.

This has already driven average mortgage rates to a six-month low, as Capital Economics expects average two-year fixed rates to plateau at 4.6pc over the next six months before falling to 3.8pc by the end of the year.

This in turn will boost affordability as buyers will see their savings stretch further.

In October, a typical two-person household had to commit 28pc of their combined disposable income to monthly mortgage payments, far above the 20pc average through the 2010s, according to Pantheon. 

However, it said this will soon drop to 25pc as rates fall, clearing the way for more people to move house.

Buyer demand in the first week of January was up 10pc year-on-year, according to property website Zoopla. 

Capital Economics has revised its forecasts for mortgage approvals this year from 600,000 to 740,000. 

Lucian Cook, director of residential research at Savills, says: “Increasingly it looks like 2024 is going to be quite a savvy time to buy, provided you can find the deposit and get competitive mortgage finance.”

The improving outlook could provide a boost for Rishi Sunak in his battle against Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer.

“Rising prices and improving activity on the back of lower mortgage rates should be positive for the Government,” says Andrew Wishart, who runs the housing service at Capital Economics.

The timing is key to the Prime Minister’s plan to hold a general election in the autumn rather than spring, as households will feel better off as the year wears on.

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