The consequent decline in manpower is unlikely to be compensated for in economic dynamism; Xi Jinping’s focus on centralising power and control of the economy has come alongside crackdowns on business leaders. It is difficult to see the sort of economic liberalisation that might break the ceiling on China’s growth prospects happening soon.
Throughout history, countries that sense opportunity beginning to slip from their grasp have attempted to seize what they can. Germany in 1914 saw its economic miracle coming to an end, a developing alliance between Britain, France and Russia aimed at containing it, and a military build-up that threatened its primacy on the continent.
Chief of the general staff, Helmuth von Moltke, urged the government to launch a “preventive war in order to defeat the enemy while we still stand a chance of victory”.
Japan, in 1941, found itself in a similar situation. Already embroiled in a conflict of its own devising, it was placed under economic sanctions by the United States. Facing the prospect of curtailing its ambitions, or attempting one last great gamble, it chose to strike Pearl Harbor. In Germany, Hitler, who believed his country was destined to fall further behind the United States, hesitated, and then declared war upon America, too.
An invasion of Taiwan is a daunting prospect today. The country has lived under the threat of war for decades. Amphibious assaults are challenging at the best of times, let alone against an island turned into a “porcupine” by defensive weapons systems. Add in the prospect of highly likely defeat in any engagement with the Americans, and why would the Chinese try it?
The only answer is “if the alternative is intolerable”. Accepting that the chance for reunification has finally vanished would be intolerable. The Communist Party facing unrest as growth slows and troubles mount would be intolerable. And allowing China’s peak period of influence to pass without action could prove intolerable, too.
We have heard a constant drumbeat of comments from US military figures suggesting that the People’s Liberation Army wants to be ready for war by 2027, or next year, or maybe next decade.
A recent poll of China specialists suggested 63pc believed an invasion would be “possible within the next 10 years”. If the Chinese economy continues to falter – and America continues to prepare Taiwan for conflict – Beijing’s closing window could bring that conflict sooner than we think.
The era of Chinese growth is over. Like Germany in 1914, war could follow
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The consequent decline in manpower is unlikely to be compensated for in economic dynamism; Xi Jinping’s focus on centralising power and control of the economy has come alongside crackdowns on business leaders. It is difficult to see the sort of economic liberalisation that might break the ceiling on China’s growth prospects happening soon.
Throughout history, countries that sense opportunity beginning to slip from their grasp have attempted to seize what they can. Germany in 1914 saw its economic miracle coming to an end, a developing alliance between Britain, France and Russia aimed at containing it, and a military build-up that threatened its primacy on the continent.
Chief of the general staff, Helmuth von Moltke, urged the government to launch a “preventive war in order to defeat the enemy while we still stand a chance of victory”.
Japan, in 1941, found itself in a similar situation. Already embroiled in a conflict of its own devising, it was placed under economic sanctions by the United States. Facing the prospect of curtailing its ambitions, or attempting one last great gamble, it chose to strike Pearl Harbor. In Germany, Hitler, who believed his country was destined to fall further behind the United States, hesitated, and then declared war upon America, too.
An invasion of Taiwan is a daunting prospect today. The country has lived under the threat of war for decades. Amphibious assaults are challenging at the best of times, let alone against an island turned into a “porcupine” by defensive weapons systems. Add in the prospect of highly likely defeat in any engagement with the Americans, and why would the Chinese try it?
The only answer is “if the alternative is intolerable”. Accepting that the chance for reunification has finally vanished would be intolerable. The Communist Party facing unrest as growth slows and troubles mount would be intolerable. And allowing China’s peak period of influence to pass without action could prove intolerable, too.
We have heard a constant drumbeat of comments from US military figures suggesting that the People’s Liberation Army wants to be ready for war by 2027, or next year, or maybe next decade.
A recent poll of China specialists suggested 63pc believed an invasion would be “possible within the next 10 years”. If the Chinese economy continues to falter – and America continues to prepare Taiwan for conflict – Beijing’s closing window could bring that conflict sooner than we think.
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