‘The bottom of the barrel is visible’: Inside the West’s scramble for more ammo

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That all changed following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

At first, Ukraine needed anti-armour weapons like British, shoulder-fired NLAWS to stop Russian tanks. But the fighting has since turned to heavy artillery fire after both sides dug in last winter, with Ukraine using howitzers as well as US-supplied HIMARS rocket launchers. 

Russia has been firing up to an estimated 60,000 shells a day, while this year Ukraine was reportedly firing 6,000 back at the height of its counter-offensive. The shells Kyiv is typically relying on are NATO-standard, Howitzer-fired 155mm rounds produced by the likes of BAE’s Washington factory.

The US has donated more than two million artillery rounds alone to Ukraine, while the UK has sent more than 300,000. Europe has promised one million, having delivered about one quarter of that so far.

Military stockpiles across Europe are now running too low to give more, meaning there must be a big production increase to meet Kyiv’s needs, which amount to about 1.5 million shells per year according to some estimates.

The entire output of 155mm shells across all of Europe was thought to be around 230,000 rounds per year before the war, according to the Warsaw-based Centre for Eastern Studies. It signifies there must be a rapid ramp up of production.

As a result, governments are spending heavily again and defence companies are ramping up activity. The UK Ministry of Defence has awarded contracts worth £410m in total to BAE to produce 155mm shells, 30mm medium caliber rounds and 5.56mm ammunition, aimed at restocking the Army’s arsenal.

The new UK contracts will require BAE to set up an additional production line in Tyne and Wear as well as a new explosive filling facility in Glascoed, South Wales.

Shares in BAE have leapt 36pc higher over the last year.

Similar contracts have been awarded by the European Defence Agency to contractors on the Continent.

In that respect, rearmament is proving a boon to defence contractors, including giants such as Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics, which also makes 155mm shells.

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