The Bank of England must stop raising interest rates before it’s too late

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Earlier this month, the MPC hiked rates from 5pc to 5.25pc, its 14th consecutive increase, as the monetary authorities continued to fight stubbornly high UK price pressures.

But headline inflation fell to 7.9pc during the year to June, down from 8.7pc the month before, and the economy has been on the brink of stagnation. So there’s been growing speculation over recent weeks that, rather than raising all the way to 6.5pc or even 6.75pc, the Bank may take rates only to 5.5pc or 5.75pc over the coming months.

This drop in market expectations of where UK rates will peak is why mortgage lenders have now started to compete by dropping the cost of two-year and five-year fixed-rate deals – even though the Bank is widely expected to implement at least one or two more base rate rises.

Some have even speculated the MPC may pause its tightening cycle next month, keeping rates on hold, much to the relief of cash-strapped households on variable-rate home loans.

Yet with GDP still growing, and at a faster-than-expected pace, there is now, as things currently stand, almost no chance of the Bank holding rates in September. That could change, though, depending on the July inflation number – to be published this coming Wednesday.

This column has been calling for the Bank of England to stop raising rates since April – a view pilloried at the time, but now increasingly widely held.

Sticking my neck out again, I reckon that falling producer costs mean that, when the July figure is released, it will show UK inflation below 7pc for the first time since February 2022 – when Russia invaded Ukraine.

With countless rate rises already in the tank, and taking into account the fact that monetary policy generally takes 12 to 18 months to impact the broader economy, the MPC would be on solid ground if it made the case for now monitoring the effect of previous rate rises, rather than driving the economy into the ground by implementing even more.

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