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Four years after the historic events that transpired on August 5, 2019, how should we judge the Modi government’s decision to nullify Article 370? To answer the question, it is important first to understand the gravity of the challenges PM Modi was faced with.
First, he had to manage the overhang of Jawaharlal Nehru’s “panch bhool” or “five blunders” in the formative years post-Independence. As Union Minister Kiren Rijiju has evocatively captured in his articles, these blunders were not just disastrous but created a vicious loop of further complications.
Nehru rejected Maharaja Hari Singh’s offer to join the Union not just in July 1947 but in August and September of the same year as well. The result – it opened an opportunity for Pakistan to become a party to and so create a dispute. Nehru then blundered again in declaring the eventual accession as provisional, which started the chain reaction of calls for plebiscite and indeed, for separatist legal provisions like Article 370. Nehru’s third blunder was approaching the UN under the wrong section, thereby legitimising Pakistan’s role. Connected to this blunder was Nehru’s fourth blunder of not permanently rubbishing the thought of a plebiscite in Kashmir, even though UNCIP gave such an opportunity to India in January 1949. Finally, the fifth blunder – the creation of Article 370. These five blunders had, in various degrees, hobbled India for close to seven decades.
The second challenge before the PM was to manage the legal aspects of Article 370. The Constituent Assembly of Kashmir served out its term in 1957 and then ceased to exist. Since Article 370 could be nullified in the then legal architecture only by using Article 370(3), which mandated the recommendation of the Constituent Assembly, there seemed to be no plausible way to ever erase the separatist Article. Or so thought everyone till August 2019. It is a credit to Modi and his team’s dogged persistence that they eventually found a legal and constitutional method to do so. The Supreme Court is currently seized of the matter. So it would be prudent not to make further remarks on the matter but suffice it to say that the solution emerged only because of Modi’s ability to go into the minutest details to find a solution.
Third, is the management of political aspects. This included preparing the national mood in the country, outside of Kashmir, so that it became impossible for any sane party to oppose the move. Just as an example, between 2014 and 2019, the RSS held over 5,000 small to medium gatherings discussing Article 370 and its ruinous effects on the people of Jammu and Kashmir. Under the radar, these gatherings built silent public momentum. Parallelly, a minutely planned exercise to navigate the majority required in Parliament, especially in Rajya Sabha, started as early as 2016 and gained momentum as August 2019 approached.
Fourth, the administrative aspects. Planning and managing the fallout of removing Article 370 required the highest levels of proficiency in game theory. More than 600 situations were chalked out of various contingencies that could arise. Plans to manage each of these contingencies were formulated as well as the consequence chain of following a particular plan and the resultant actions that would be required to manage each node of the chain. It was a humongous exercise of anticipating every plausible scenario and Modi’s expertise from his political life came in handy. The administrative aspect also required maintaining secrecy even as massive preparations were being put in place.
Fifth, security and law and order. Following the Burhan Wani episode in July 2016, Modi laid out the guiding principle for the strategic team — “No security situation is unsurmountable if it has been anticipated.” Thus began a three-year plan and its stage-wise execution that delivered when the time came in August 2019.
Dismantling the funding sources of the extremist groups – a minuscule minority of Kashmir’s population – required various actions that took place between July 2017 to March 2019. These sources were both within the state as well as across the border. Each was dealt with. In the BJP, Modi has taught the party the value of booth-level man-management. On the security front, this took the shape of police station and chowki level man-management. But this was not the only security challenge managed. Pakistan had been sent a message in February 2019 and even as late as early August 2019 that any misadventure by it will be met with such firm repose that it would not have been war-gamed.
Sixth, the will of the people of Jammu and Kashmir. Modi had realised way back in the 1990s, when he was a frequent visitor to the state, that the people of Kashmir in general, minus a micro minority, were not radicals and they could be enlightened to become part of the national mainstream. Modi’s greatest contribution was in affecting this change and he set out on this work from the first weeks of assuming office in 2014.
From being the first to reach Kashmir during the floods in 2014, to multiple meetings with various stakeholders beginning from 2014 itself, and from ensuring that developmental works reach the people of Kashmir just as every other part of the country, to institutionalising ministerial as well as his Prime Ministerial meetings, the focus was persistent. Over 150 Union Ministerial visits and over 18 Prime Ministerial visits took place between 2014 to 2019. The aim was to make such visits routine rather than one-off events. To be with the people of Kashmir just like we are with people in any other part of the country.
The hardline against corruption, even against those who sold themselves to the people as interlocutors between “India” and Kashmir, sent out the message that the old ways are over for good. They were not going to be any free passes for those who defrauded the public just because they took a so-called pro-India stand. Modi would rather directly talk to people than compromise with the corrupt. No other government in the past had dared to do this.
Then came the decision to sacrifice state power for the BJP in June 2018, so as to devolve power to the people of Kashmir. This electrified the atmosphere. Modi’s method of “enhancing democracy” by empowering over 35,000 Kashmiris put him in firm contrast to the three families who had dominated the region’s politics thus far. The three families, who talked of democracy were the obstructionists when it came to holding local body elections whereas Modi was trusting every common Kashmiri to get elected and govern.
So, when the moment came in August 2019, the people of Kashmir knew that Modi was doing this for the benefit of Kashmiris.
Finally, managing the international complexities. The neighbours to the West and the North were not the only interested parties in keeping the pot boiling. There was a host of other international players as well. But what these neighbours had not counted on was the reaction from the international community in general and West Asia in particular. It is only in August 2019 did these two neighbours realise that Modi had outplayed them in this aspect as well, with a series of actions undertaken between 2014 and 2019.
Modi had displayed in 2015 that he was willing to make peace with Pakistan by going to Lahore. That Pakistan did not want to play ball was now firmly established. Modi’s India was thus not implicitly hostile to Pakistan but just reacting to reality. This message resonated in all world capitals in August 2019.
Over and above the aspects of managing the individual facets of removing Article 370, Modi, in the process also left a template for the country: With strategic patience, unwavering focus, clarity on the goal, and with detailed planning and execution, there is nothing that cannot be done.
This is a template that, when executed as a default process for all critical tasks, eventually transforms an average entity into a great enterprise. At the national level, if we are able to institutionalise this approach for all our tasks, there is nothing that can stop us from being the greatest nation of this era. That is perhaps the greatest legacy of August 5, 2019.
The writer is CEO, Bluekraft Digital Foundation and was earlier director (content) MyGov
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