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As a new year dawns, Londoners may be wondering how the rolling calendar will affect how much they will be paying to travel around the capital as price rises are often planned. On March 5, 2023, most adult pay as you go fares for the Tube, DLR, London Overground and Elizabeth line increased by between 10p and 30p.
The adult peak pay as you go fare for a journey in Zone 1 rose to £2.80, and the adult off-peak pay as you go fare for a journey in Zone 1 became £2.70.
Meanwhile, the adult off-peak pay as you go fare in a single zone (not Zone 1) was increased to £1.80, and cash fares, also known as paper single and return tickets, for Zones 1-6 rose by 40p to £6.70.
READ MORE: Map shows where more than 300,000 Londoners are in ‘transport poverty’
On the buses, the adult pay as you go fare increased by 10p to £1.75, and the daily cap jumped up by 30p to £5.25. The 16+ daily cap rose by 15p to £2.55.
What could 2024 have in store?
TfL documents provide some clues. The mayor’s budget for 2024/25, for instance, suggests that its passenger income estimates are “based upon a planning assumption of an annual national fare increase of four per cent in March 2024 in line with the 30 August 2022 Funding Settlement”. But, it highlights that the actual level of fares is set by the Mayor on an annual basis and implemented each March.
So the budget planning is based on it being a rise of at least 4% but Mr Khan could choose to match the National Rail fare increase which has been confirmed as 4.9%, and coming into effect in March 2024.
Going by this information, this is what could happen to TfL fares in 2024, if the mayor does indeed match the National Rail increase. In reality it’s likely the fares will be rounded up or down to the nearest 5p or 10p so we have calculated a 4.9% rise then rounded it down. An adult peak pay as you go fare in Zone 1, for instance would be £2.93 if it rises by 4.9% so we have rounded it down to £2.90.
Officials tight-lipped
Officials have been tight-lipped towards the end of this year when asked by MyLondon about potential fare increases, preferring to announce any increase in the coming months. The Mayor of London, and the Chair of TfL, Sadiq Khan, for example, said: “This is a cunning device by you for me to announce my fares policy before the end of the financial year. I think the CFO [chief financial officer] of TfL would probably kill me if I pre-announced them. But, there’s lots of work being done by her and the team in relation to the options.”
Mr Khan added: “In the first five years of my mayoralty, I froze fares in TfL. We also introduced the hopper fare – unlimited bus travel within an hour. Londoners know my record when I’m in charge of fares in London.
“We had to increase them just above inflation because of the condition of the government grant. I’m looking to do whatever I can to make sure public transport is affordable.”
Asked whether Transport for London (TfL) could be in for an increase, the city’s deputy mayor in charge of transport, Seb Dance, told MyLondon in November: “We had to increase fares this year because of the conditions attached to the Government funding deal. They made it very clear that we would have to match the increases that we saw on the National Rail system.
“But, we should also make it very clear that when Sadiq Khan came in in 2016, he froze fares and froze them again subsequently. So, they are very much lower than they would otherwise have been had those fare freezes not gone in. The increase in fares was something that the mayor loathed to do. But, we had to as part of the conditions the Government gave us.”
Possible fare structure change
It comes as TfL could change the way it charges fares as Londoners adapt their travel patterns in the city after the Coronavirus pandemic. Mr Dance said earlier this year: “We’re in a period now where travel patterns are changing.
“We’re not quite sure where they’ll end up. So, I think it’s right that we look at the model and look at ways that we could be a bit more responsive perhaps to the ways travel patterns are changing.”
Asked if off peak charges could be introduced on Fridays, the deputy mayor said: “Nothing’s off the table, but, let me be very clear, we’re in the very early stages […] But yes, all ideas like that would certainly be considered. I think it’s important that we have that flexibility, certainly, to look at what those changes are.”
The authority’s draft business plan for 2024 states for certain, however, that, from early next year, officials will introduce reduced price travel on buses and trams for care leavers aged between 18-25. This, bosses say, will help even more young people move around London for less.
Reliance on fares
The mayor’s budget states that officials are looking to shift towards other ways of gathering income – such as commercial deals – and away from having to rely on customers’ fares.
The document states: “We are actively growing passenger demand, creating new sources of revenue to reduce our reliance on fares income, delivering recurring savings and growing an operating surplus based on our own income sources.”
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