[ad_1]
Receive free Nato updates
We’ll send you a myFT Daily Digest email rounding up the latest Nato news every morning.
Sweden is on the cusp of joining Nato after Turkey dropped its objections, in a historic turning point for the Scandinavian country that cherished its militarily non-aligned status for more than two centuries.
Swedes became aware of Moscow’s growing aggressiveness when the Russian air force simulated a nuclear attack on a facility close to Stockholm in 2013. But it took Russia’s onslaught against Ukraine last year to end its lingering attachment to neutrality.
“It’s a huge, historic shift for Sweden,” said Carl Bildt, a former Swedish prime minister.
Camille Grand, a former Nato assistant secretary-general, said Sweden’s membership would strengthen regional security, enhance Nato deterrence against Russian aggression and bring advanced military capabilities to the alliance.
“It is one of the most significant transformations of the European security landscape since the cold war,” Grand said. “How [Vladimir] Putin brought that about is really quite interesting.”
The Russian president has for years complained about Nato enlargement, which he described as a security threat for his country — and even justified his full-scale invasion of Ukraine as a defensive act against the military alliance that he seeks to drag into the war.
Instead, neutral Finland and non-aligned Sweden applied to join the military alliance in the aftermath of his 2022 invasion — and so did Ukraine.
But while Finland was able to join in April this year, Sweden met a wall of resistance from Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, over what he claimed was its lax attitude to supporters of extremist and terrorist groups, including the banned Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK).
An agreement between the Turkish leader and Swedish prime minister Ulf Kristersson struck in Vilnius on the eve of a Nato summit will end Sweden’s limbo. Though further hurdles cannot be ruled out, the deal was also signed by Nato, making it harder for Ankara to wriggle out. It was “a very big step”, said Kristersson.
As an EU member, the country already enjoyed a pledge of help if under attack and it was given interim security guarantees last year by the US, UK and other powers pending its Nato membership. But once inside, Sweden will enjoy the whole alliance’s full protection under its Article 5 collective defence clause.
“It’s a huge relief,” said Gunilla Herolf, senior associate research fellow at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs. “We feel much safer.”
Swedish membership will help Nato bolster its defence of the entire Nordic and Baltic regions and reinforce its presence in the Arctic. Its forces, logistics, airspace and maritime areas can now be fully integrated into Nato operational planning.
“Defence of that particular region is so much easier if you can co-ordinate efforts, plans and command,” said Bildt. “You can achieve much greater deterrence if you combine efforts.”
Swedish territory can provide “strategic depth” — room for supplies and reinforcements — to all its Nordic neighbours, particularly Finland, with which it has close military ties.
But Sweden’s accession would have most value for the defence of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, said Grand, now at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
“It really closes the Baltic Sea as a Nato lake. The Balts felt like an island. Now [their defence] is much easier with military integration.”
Sweden will also bring some important capabilities. Although its army is small, it has a skilled navy, particularly its submarine fleet. It has a capable air force equipped with fourth-generation Gripen fighters and state of the art air defences.
Its military is used to working with its neighbours’ forces. The four Nordic nations last year agreed to pool their air forces, which combined are roughly the size of the UK’s Royal Air Force.
Meanwhile, Sweden’s defence companies produce advanced equipment, including artillery, air defence and anti-tank weapons vital for Ukraine’s defence.
“They are not going to be those allies who are free-riders,” said Grand. “They are bringing capabilities.
Sweden and its neighbours would still need to take “big leaps ahead”, said Bildt, including integrating their air defence systems and logistical supply chains.
Anna Wieslander, director for northern Europe at the Atlantic Council think-tank, said Sweden would need to develop a “strategic culture” among its top commanders and political decision makers. As a non-aligned country, albeit one active in multilateral institutions such as the EU and UN, it had the ability to hold back and sit on the fence.
“Moving from national defence planning to a more collective defence planning process is a quite a big shift both practically and mentally,” she said.
“The expectations will be that Sweden will be an active member of Nato but that will be quite a challenge.”
[ad_2]
Source link