Today’s farmers have grown up with the impression that U.S. agriculture feeds the world. And at one time it did.

In those bygone days there were dozens of countries lining up at grain terminals at many seaports wanting a shipload of wheat, primarily. And U.S. farmers produced so much grain that government programs were developed just to give it away to hungry nations in Africa and the Middle East.

Farmers had every reason to thump their chest and take pride in the grain they produced that would feed hungry folks seen in some news programs on the television. (It was black and white because it was the 1950s.)

Since that time U.S. agriculture has multiplied its grain production ten-fold or more. And in the 20th Century, what was not needed to feed livestock, was being exported. In the last several decades, products made from grain have spread from vehicle fuel tanks to rubber tires and sneakers. And that has been a good thing, because something has happened to the volume of grain that is exported.

USDA’s recent supply-demand report for corn had some telling data when it comes to exports. USDA economists reduced their projection for corn by 25 million bushels. Negligible in comparison to the 15 billion bushel crop that will be produced this year. But not that long ago, corn exports were well north of 2 billion bushels. And USDA has been ratcheting down its export estimate about every month this year.

The U.S. Grains Council, the primary promoter of U.S. corn to the international community, reported last week that corn exports in the 2022/2023 marketing year were 1.6 billion bushels, down 32.9% from the prior marketing year.

Today’s corn prices are less a function of corn exports than other corn products that are refined from corn. The Grains Council said its second most popular product to global buyers was ethanol, with 77 different countries purchasing some quantity. The 1.25 billion gallons of corn-based ethanol that were exported consumed 423 million bushels of corn in the refining process.

And the co-product from ethanol refining, distillers dried grains (DDGS) was the third most demanded commodity from the Grains Council. Exports consumed only 4.1 million bushels of corn equivalent when shipped to the 54 importing nations.

What is driving down exports of U.S. corn? It is certainly not quality. But the major issue is price, and to a lesser extent, available supply.

During September, the average price of corn at Gulf grain terminals at the lower end of the Mississippi River were offering corn to international buyers at $5.81 per bushel. The average price of corn at Brazil’s Paranagua grain port was $5.61 per bushel. Brazil will nearly always undercut U.S. prices, and that is why it took the big Chinese market away from U.S. exporters.

But corn at the Gulf grain terminals also has another handicap, which is the low water in the Mississippi River preventing large volumes of corn available for export. Farmers cannot do much about either handicap. But they can create new domestic uses of corn.

How about low carbon fuel for the U.S. commercial airlines?