Starlink speed: NZ watchdog’s verdict amid handicapped rankings

For the first time, Starlink’s satellite broadband service has been included in the Commerce Commission’s Measuring Broadband in NZ testing.

And the news is good for owner Elon Musk.

Early test results, taken in February,
show Starlink peak-hour download speeds are above 150 megabits per second, and an average download speed of 178 Mbps. This compares with an average of 9 Mbps for copper-based ADSL, 25 Mbps for 4G wireless broadband and 33 Mbps for copper-based VDSL in rural areas. For upload speed, Starlink registers a not nearly as flash 19 Mbps.

It puts Starlink on a par with entry-level fibre plans, confirming feedback from Herald readers who’ve been early adopters of Musk’s service – with almost all being very happy campers.

Even by October last year, around a year after launch, Starlink customer numbers were put at 10,000 and climbing 120 Mbps is fine for the likes of Netflix, Zoom and Slack and, because Starlink’s satellites have a low orbit (600km), they don’t have the lag problems with the likes of online gaming or video conferencing that have dogged the geosynchronous satellites (36,000km above) that have traditionally been used for satellite broadband.

Starlink itself makes no speed claims for its $159 per month, unlimited data consumer plan. (For its business plan, which requires a larger, higher-gain and more expensive – $4200 – dish and chargers $340 per month, Starlink promises 350 Mbps downloads).

While there are a couple of gnarly outstanding issues (which we’ll get to shortly), this morning the ComCom lavished praise on satellite broadband.

Telecommunications Commissioner Tristan Gilbertson said the results confirm that “low-Earth orbit satellite technology is a step-change in performance for consumers in areas that don’t have access to fibre-to-the-home or to their business”.

A second key finding was that rural users (35 Mbps in peak time) get slower average 4G fixed-wireless internet than urban users (50 Mpbs).

The speed kings are still the more expensive fibre plans and One’s hybrid fibre cable (HFC), available in parts of Wellington and Christchurch. Both offer huge speeds, and for both uploads and downloads.

We still don’t have the full picture.

In November, the ComCom said it wanted to double the number of volunteers on its broadband testing panel (run by UK firm SamKnows) from 1000 to 2000 – to capture more results for Starlink and 5G wireless.

Since then, the regulator says 500 more have signed up and 180 of SamKnows’ data capturing “white boxes” have been sent to volunteers (volunteers get access to SamKnows dashboards. There’s also potential for a modest discount off your broadband if your ISP comes to the party; so far none have).

That’s decent progress, and it’s enough for the ComCom to give some taster data in the form of Starlink download speeds (a spokeswoman confirmed that all 23 of the “LEO [Low Earth Orbit] results in its average download speed chart are Starlink customers).

More white boxes have been shipped to test volunteers, so fuller results are possible with ComCom’s next report. For now, the regulator says the small sample size of Starlink users mean it can give results for disconnections. Starlink is also missing from the tests charts for latency (lag) and is not included in its results for Netflix and gaming.

There are no 5G Fixed-Wireless results in any category. The much slower, more susceptible to peak-time jam 4G Fixed-Wireless is left to fly the flag for the technology. It registers an average 33 Mbps in the ComCom’s download tests.

The network of small, locally-owned wireless internet service providers (or “wisps”) also misses out because the ComCom can’t collect enough volunteer test data on them for meaningful results.

The ComCom says it’s hampered by there being “fewer than 5000″ 5G fixed-wireless accounts. (Spark, Vodafone and 2degrees will expand their fixed-wireless coverage in provincial and rural NZ as a quid pro quo for getting 5G spectrum at no cost – but when, where and how much they’ll spend on it is still being hammered out with the Government).

The regulator also says the mobile telcos could offer a sweetener, such as a discount on a customer’s monthly bill, to encourage more 5G fixed-wireless users to sign up for the broadband testing panel. So far, none have, a spokeswoman said this morning. (Spark, One and 2degrees have been asked for comment).

The mobile players initially gave Starlink something of a hostile reception, complaining in submissions to the ComCom that Starlink pays a token amount (less than $10,000 per year) for radio licences for its six ground stations in NZ.

More recently, things have been sunnier. 2degrees merged with Vocus NZ, Starlink’s partner on half of its ground stations (the partner on the remainder is Cello). And in February, 2degrees became the first local reseller for Starlink’s business kit (earlier, The Warehouse Group’s Noel Leeming chain became the first local reseller for Starlink’s consumer kit).

And on April 3, as it marked re-branding to One NZ, the company formerly known as Vodafone NZ revealed a satellite-to-mobile partnership with Starlink. CEO Jason Paris said it would allow One customers to send a text from anywhere in NZ, or its territorial waters, from late next year. Mobile voice and data via Starlink will follow at an unknown date.

The whole satellite-to-mobile launch hinges on Starlink launching around 2000 second-generation satellites on top of the 6000 it already has in orbit. Musk’s plan is to launch the second-generation birds on SpaceX’s new, larger Starship rocket (Starlink is a division of SpaceX). You might have seen that Starship’s first test launch didn’t go so well.

Asked by the Herald if he was worried about Elon Musk ultimately eating One’s lunch, Paris said that satellite-to-mobile data, once it arrived, would be slower than Starlink’s feed to its dishes, and slower than 5G mobile data delivered via One’s network.

Starlink also gained positive headlines during Cyclone Gabrielle’s aftermath too, as its Nema and Ngāti Porou distributed dozens of its satellite kits to the hard-hit East Coast.

It’s not all sunbeams, however. Last month, as Starlink slashed the price of its install kit from $1049 to $199, Wispa NZ chair Mike Smith told the Herald, “There are some concerns from members and others in the market that this could potentially be seen as predatory pricing.”

Smith’s group, which represents 30 small provincial and rural internet service providers, is weighing a complaint to the ComCom.

More business could be coming Starlink’s way regardless. Earlier this year, the Government launched a new scheme that provides up to $2000 per property for remote rural broadband installs. Starlink qualifies for the scheme. Applications close in June.