While the cattle market faltered, soybeans and corn found strength this week on concerns about possible winter weather moving in and on

news regarding wars in foreign countries

, Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag Risk Management and Randy Koenen of the Red River Farm Network discussed on this week’s Agweek Market Wrap.

“We finally were able to see soybeans break through that $13 level here and hold it yesterday,” Koenen said.

“That’s right, and corn broke about $5 and is holding that as of now,” Martinson said.

He said the market is “finally starting to see we’re on the backside of harvest” with yields still to be determined. But with a “rough” forecast appearing to call for heavy moisture and cold temperatures moving in, there are concerns about slowing down what’s left of harvest.

Plus, demand out of the Pacific Northwest has been picking up because the U.S. is the “cheapest in the world” for soybeans, and there also have been rumors of China buying corn.

Koenen pointed out that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on Thursday indicating that interest rates wouldn’t be raised for now.

“That seemed to spark that market,” he said.

Martinson said there had been thoughts that interest rates would go up one more time in 2023, whether November or December, leading to increasing uncertainty.

“Well, now, we might hold pat, and that, I think, helped the market, you know, push a little bit, and of course we still continue to see the employment numbers come in better than expected. So all that, I think, is helping a little bit,” he said. “It does make the economy kind of a little concerned about the possibility of a recession. But the fact that we’re holding employment up is is keeping it away.”

Koenen mentioned that other uncertainties remain, including that there is presently no Speaker of the House, as well as wars in Israel and Ukraine.

“The war in Israel is probably the one that’s adding the biggest amount of support,” Martinson said, noting Ukraine headlines have faded a bit for the moment, though Russian missile strikes might pull it back into the spotlight.

Koenen questioned whether the Israel conflict would be bearish for the markets, since the region is a net importer of grains. Martinson said in the long term it probably will be bearish, but he expects a “short-term surge” or imports that push the markets up for a time — and the U.S. likely will benefit from that.

“Of course, if you’re going to buy and you need it quick, where do you go? You go to the U.S., because you know, you can get the supply,” he said. “So I think that could help, you know, not just our soybeans and our corn, but it could help our wheat as well.”

Koenen said the dollar’s strength has been one inhibitor of sales out of the U.S.

“That is the one bad part the other, you know, and it does make our products a little bit more expensive in the big picture,” Martinson said. “But when you need the product and you want it, you gotta go get it from who’s got it.”

Soybeans were softer on Friday, which Martinson said was profit taking ahead of the weekend. He expects the forecast will strengthen the market next week. A lot of focus is on the soybean meal market right now, which is going toward exports, rather than on whole beans. That’s a good thing given the number of soybean crush plants coming on line and expected to come on line in the coming years, Martinson said, because while there is higher demand in the U.S., it’s exports that have been the big pull.

Koenen said “we had the rug pulled out of that feeder cattle market yesterday.”

“Yeah, that was tough,” Martinson said.

He said poor export sales numbers, a higher corn market and a Cattle on Feed report due out later Friday that is expected to be negative was “just too much for the cattle markets to bear.”

“We saw, as far as the feeder cattle market, a big letdown, and supplies are gonna start building up this,” he said, noting that possible bad weather could make the situation worse as more animals would move toward the sale rings.

Koenen said cut outs also were down hard in recent days, which Martinson said is an indication the price of beef has gotten too high for consumers, just the same as it has gotten for exports. They said the price being too high for consumers is especially true as it gets time to turn on the heat.

“What are we gonna choose? Are we gonna choose the high beef price … and not heat the house, or are we gonna heat the house and buy the cheaper chicken?” Martinson said.

The lean hog market, too, continues to struggle, Koenen said.

Martinson said a recent Hogs and Pigs report from USDA was negative to the market.

“We’re seeing big expansion over in China. I would expect that is slowing down the exports, and that hog market now is starting to see a little of a pinch,” he said.

Going forward, Martinson said the weather in South American will play a big part in the markets because planting is going on there. Acres could switch from corn to soybeans or possibly later corn due to dry conditions. Koenen said Red River Farm Network talked to contact in Brazil who told him corn really isn’t competitive there right now.

“Those don’t pencil it for corn, and so they might go with soybeans, or just look at cotton or dry edible beans,” Martinson said.

Crude oil prices also are rallying due to war, he said.

“And producers should be pretty aware of maybe looking to getting their fall needs met and maybe part of their spring needs covered because of this,” he advised.

(The Agweek Market Wrap is sponsored by Gateway Building Systems.)