Despite the narrative that many Gauteng residents are moving to the Western Cape for superior service delivery, recent data from Stats SA paints a different picture.

Last week, Stats SA released revisions to provincial GDP growth numbers. These stats can be used for a variety of factors, such as effective resource allocations for provinces.

Individuals can also use these statistics to make personal decisions, such as where to reside or where to buy investment properties,” Isaah Mhlanga, Chief Economist and Head of Research from RMB, said.

“The semigration from Gauteng to the Western Cape is a case in point. Better infrastructure, safety and security, and quality of life, among other factors, have been cited as reasons for relocating to the Western Cape.”

Looking at the data, the revisions to the annual growth rates from 2013 to 2019 were about 0.1
percentage points (ppt) across all provinces. The Western Cape, Gauteng and Eastern Cape had the lowest revisions.

Although these changes may seem small, the revisions of the sizes of provincial GDP as measured in 2013 and 2019 were massive.

In real rand terms, Gauteng’s economy saw the largest revision of R449 billion, far ahead of KwaZulu-Natal (R250 billion) and the Western Cape (R210 billion). The Northern Cape’s economy saw the smallest change at R29 billion.

Regarding percentage changes from 2013 to 2019 in economic size, the Eastern Cape (53.5%) and the North West (51.3%) saw the biggest percentage increases, while the Free State (37.5%) saw the slimmest increase.

“Despite the apparent semigration phenomenon to the Western Cape from Gauteng, the revisions to provincial GDP statistics suggest that the proportion of the Gauteng economy remained relatively unchanged at 33.1% in 2022 from 33.2% in 2013,” Mhlanga said.

“On the other hand, the contribution of the Western Cape to national GDP moderated to 13.9% in 2022 from 14.1% in 2013. KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape’s shares declined noticeably from 16.3% and 8% to 15.9% and 7.6% between 2013 and 2022, respectively.”

Gauteng’s GDP had the largest upward revision in inflation-adjusted real terms – with R448 billion more business opportunities than previously estimated compared to the Western Cape’s R210 billion.

In addition, from 2013 to 2019, Gauteng’s average growth rate of 1.5% was higher than the Western Cape’s 1.4%.

This data suggests that the Western Cape has not been growing faster than Gauteng.

“It is possible that in the period since the pandemic, there could be some changes in these growth rates, but up to 2019, the reality, as shown by the provincial GDP figures, still points to Gauteng being the fastest-growing province followed by the Western Cape,” Mhlanga noted.

“It is important to keep in mind that economies are complex, thus, decimal point precision in analysis and comparison is a useless exercise. Rather, the focus should be on the analysis of changes in broad trends.”

Read: The hidden cost of load shedding – where rich South Africans win