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South Africa will have several newcomers contesting in this year’s national election hoping to secure their seat at the table – but history shows that new parties tend to struggle in their first elections.
ANC-breakaway party uMkhonto we Sizwe – named after the ANC’s former military wing – has been grabbing headlines in recent weeks, largely due to backing from former President Jacob Zuma, who has pledged his support for the party.
Rise Mzansi has also been receiving widespread media attention, with National Leader Songezo Zibi predicting that the party will receive 7.5% of the vote, according to News24.
Many other parties, including former FirstRand Group chairperson Roger Jardine’s Change Starts Now; former City of Johannesburg speaker Colleen Makhubele in the South African Rainbow Alliance (SARA); and former DA leader Mmusi Maimane’s Build One South Africa, which will contest an election for the first time.
While the popularity of these new parties remains to be seen, if past elections are anything to go by, it is unlikely that any of the new entrants will garner a significant portion of the national vote.
Failure to launch
Smaller parties tend not to fare well at national elections, with only 14 of the 64 political parties managing to secure a parliamentary seat in their first election in the first two decades (1999-2019) of post-apartheid elections.
This is according to an analysis from the Outlier, which noted that the DA’s 50-seat win in 2004 was a first for a new party in a national election in two decades.
Parties founded by former ANC members have also fared relatively well, with COPE and the EFF securing 30 seats in 2009 and 25 seats in 2014, respectively – however, only the EFF managed to carry momentum into future elections.
Outside of ex-ANC members, current Tourism Minister Patricia de Lille has had relative success in the National Elections.
After founding the Independent Democrats, De Lille and the party were able to secure seven seats in the 2004 elections. The party went on to merge with the DA in 2010. De Lille resigned from the DA in 2018 and established GOOD, which was able to win two seats in the 2019 election.
However, outside of these rare success stories, two-thirds of South Africa’s political parties have failed to win a single parliamentary seat in the last five national elections – raising questions on whether today’s new parties will be able to “disrupt” the system.
Potential kingmakers
While new parties are unlikely to break out with a significant force, this does not mean they can’t be important political players.
With the governing ANC’s popularity dwindling, analysts expect that coalition government is likely to become a prominent marker in South Africa’s political future.
Given this, any small party can become a key roleplayer in the political space and could even find itself in the position of kingmaker when playing coalition politics.
This has already been demonstrated at a municipal level – where a party with one or two seats in the council can easily collapse a coalition government and even find themselves in executive positions of the biggest metros in the country.
According to the Brenthurst Foundation’s latest poll, the ANC’s support has dropped from 48% measured in November 2022 to just 41% in October 2023, with voters citing joblessness, corruption, load shedding, and crime as the country’s largest problems.
23% of the survey respondents said they would vote for the DA, and 17% would vote for the EFF.
What’s notable is that the Multi-Party Charter (MPC) – a coalition of various parties including the DA, IFP, ASA, FF+ and many more – would get 36% of the votes.
When it comes to coalitions, even tiny percentages – just one seat – could make all the difference. However, the challenge for the new hopefuls remains securing that one seat.
Read: 9 new laws for South Africa waiting to be signed by Ramaphosa – from NHI to Hate Speech
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