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Finance group Nedbank has revised its GDP growth outlook for South Africa downwards, now expecting just 0.1% growth this year as tough economic conditions persist.
In a pre-close market update on Monday (26 June), the group said that the revision to 0.1% comes from expectations of 0.2% growth before – indicating a worsening of already bad conditions in the country.
“In the group’s 4M 2023 update, we noted that global economic activity had slowed and that the operating environment in SA has become much more challenging when compared to our expectations at the start of the year.
“This view remains in place,” it said.
On top of cutting its growth forecast in half, the group said it also expects a further 25 basis point increase in South Africa’s prime interest rate in July 2023, taking it to 12%.
More positively, however, it also anticipates inflation to come down, with the average for 2023 now expected to settle at 5.9% from 6.0% before.
“As set out in the group’s 4M 2023 update, the primary implications of these difficult macroeconomic
outcomes are higher levels of consumer stress and resultant credit losses, offset to some extent by
higher levels of endowment income,” the bank said.
Reflecting on its own business operations in this environment, the bank said that it still expects to report “muted” headline earnings given the higher level of impairments, higher equity revaluations, and delays in closing renewable energy rounds.
This will likely be offset by stronger growth in the wealth and Africa segments.
Negative growth
While Nedbank’s view shows South Africa edging towards recession, it is not the most pessimistic local financier.
Finance group FirstRand said last week that South Africa would likely post a full-year recession in 2023, with the group anticipating a contraction of 0.1%.
In a voluntary trading update for the six months ended 30 June 2023, the group said that global economic activity has started to slow due to higher levels of inflation, leading to a steep increase in the interest rate hiking cycle.
It added that the South African macroeconomic environment for the first six months of 2023 is far worse than it initially expected, with load shedding, sticky inflation and higher-than-expected interest rates all taking their toll.
Due to these factors, the group’s GDP growth forecast for the 2023 calendar year is a contraction of 0.1%.
Most banking groups and financial institutions are anticipating – at best – extremely low growth for South Africa’s economy in 2023.
The South African Reserve Bank is one of the more hopeful with a forecast of 0.3% growth – however, the IMF and other banks are more in line with Nedbank’s estimate at a paltry 0.1%.
Read: Recession warning for South Africa in 2023
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