Weather, or more specifically, a

lack of rain

, was the main topic of the Agweek Market Wrap for Friday, June 16.

Randy Koenen of the Red River Farm Network and Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag Risk Management both shared about the difficult situations farmers are in around the region as much of the northern Plains has missed out on sufficient rainfall since planting.

“Everybody needs some rain right now,” Martinson said.

While some areas have been smacked with hard and fast rain, most of the region has been missed. The impact of that hot and dry weather is stunted crops such as wheat, which in some cases, spotted around central North Dakota, is 6-12 inches in height and heading out.

“We know that that’s not going to amount to a very good crop,” Martinson said.

Martinson noted that corn, too, is heading towards an early pollination.

A cool down helped out the region this week, but a warm up appears to be back on the

forecast

.

“We’re going to start to get warm again,” Martinson said.

It’s already clear that the

southern Plains wheat

crop was struck with drought. Now it appears the northern Plains crop is going to suffer some losses.

Koenen noted that while the market is largely supply driven, demand has not changed for wheat.

“Demand is a problem,” Martinson said. “It doesn’t really seem to matter what your supply is if you don’t have the demand to eat through the bushels, it doesn’t matter,” Martinson said. Exports of wheat continue to be poor.

The markets showed decent export sales this week in corn and soybeans, but still below last year’s levels, Koenen said.

The higher prices of U.S. grains isn’t helping right now as Brazil’s ports are flooded with supplies that need to get out to consumers.

Martinson brought up

Russia’s talks

about getting out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. The thought was that the war in Ukraine would be a boost to U.S. wheat prices, but that’s not been the case. The

Initiative

specifically allows for commercial food and fertilizer (including ammonia) exports from three key Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea — Odesa, Chornomorsk, Yuzhny/Pivdennyi.

It was a volatile week for livestock. Feeder cattle finished on the lower side. Last week’s key reversal hit the cattle market hard. Live cattle continues to stay strong. Martinson said that it’s been six weeks since an interest hike, which has been a boost to the economy.

“I think will help us spur some demand on and at least get us through the Fourth of July holiday, with a big barbecue season,” Martinson said.

Koenen noted that the lean

hog market

saw a good week. Demand has picked up. Martinson was hopeful that the upcoming quarterly supply and demand report would show that the herds are showing reductions instead of expansions.

Looking at the week ahead, Martinson suggests everyone keep an eye on the weather forecast to determine what direction the market will take next.

If rain doesn’t come this weekend, Monday could be another volatile start to the week. If the rain comes, it will pull the weather premium out of the market.

(The Agweek Market Wrap is sponsored by Gateway Building Systems.)

Michael Johnson is the news editor for Agweek. He lives in rural Deer Creek, Minn., where he is starting to homestead with his two children and wife.
You can reach Michael at mjohnson@agweek.com or 218-640-2312.