Small Business Weekly Forecast

We track the latest data on the small business outlook so that you don’t have to. Every week, Tom Sullivan analyzes new data from NFIB, Intuit, WSJ/Vistage, and more, to give a weekly economic forecast for small businesses.

The Latest Forecast

Once again, I’m calling for a cloudy forecast.  New Year optimism abounds, but data on small business does not paint a sunny picture.  The MetLife & U.S. Chamber Small Business Index​ shows a decline in confidence among employers on Main Street.  Once employees become available and inflationary anxiety ebbs, sunny skies will return in the economic forecast for small businesses. 

What it means: Inflation is the top concern entering 2024 and workforce shortages remain a headwind as they have for over five years.  The good news is that small businesses’ views on their own health and cash flow remain positive. 

Listen: Tom Sullivan and National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)’s Holly Wade talk about their small business forecasts on a weekly podcast. Listen here.​

Watch: Catch Tom Sullivan on ASBN (America’s Small Business Network) every month providing the latest small business policy updates, news, and analysis. Watch here.

Just released! The Q4 MetLife & U.S. Chamber Small Business Index was released on December 12, 2023.

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New Small Business Data

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Intuit QuickBooks Entrepreneurship in 2024 Report (December 19, 2023)

Summary: Greater interest in entrepreneurship among Gen Z paves the way towards 2024 with Main Street’s fortunes resting largely on the ability to hire and keep good employees. 

• 23% of consumers in America are considering starting a new business next year (up 3 points from 2-years ago).
• Start-up plans seem to diminish with age as 28% of Gen Z’rs (up to age 26) are planning to be entrepreneurs next year.  26% of Millennials (ages 27-42), 20% of Gen X (ages 43-58), and 10% of Baby Boomers (ages 59-68) are planning on starting businesses in 2024.
• Small business owners predict that hiring skilled workers is the factor most likely to trigger business growth in 2024 and predict that inflation will serve as the biggest barrier.
• 89% of small employers would like to hire additional staff next year.  Over 50% of small business owners would like to rely on 1099 contractors instead of W-2 employees, with the highest percentage coming from solopreneurs (non-employers).
• 57% of small business owners said they earn less than $100,000 per year.  33% said they earn less than $25,000 and 10% said they earn less than $5,000 per year from their business.
• 53% of new small businesses said that digital technology made it easier to start a business.

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Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Business Voices Holiday Poll (December 18, 2023)

Summary: Survey of 337 retail small business owners Dec.1-8. Lower sales and inflationary pressures lead to belt-tightening predictions for 2024. 

• 76% of the surveyed small business owners reported no increase in holiday sales this year compared to last and 55% said their profit margins are lower.
• 82% of the surveyed small businesses reported raising prices in 2023 to keep up with rising costs.
• 66% of small business owners said inflationary pressures are making it hard to keep prices low.
• Small business owners are planning the following strategies to overcome shrinking profits:

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MetLife & U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index for Q4 (December 12, 2023)

Summary: Negativity towards the national economy continues, but confidence in small businesses’ own cash flow remains strong.

• Index dropped 8 points from Q3 to a level of 61.3, returning to levels of confidence from earlier this year and consistent with Q4 in 2022.
• A higher percentage of small businesses are negative about the U.S. economy (53%) (10 point increase from last quarter) and 25% are positive about economy’s overall health (8 point decrease).
• This is the eighth consecutive quarter where inflation ranks as small businesses’ top concern (50%) and the second biggest concern is revenue (22%).
• 42% of small businesses plan on increasing investment over the next 12-months (unchanged from the last 2 quarters) and 40% of small businesses plan on adding staff (unchanged from last quarter). The percentage of small businesses anticipating increased revenues remains elevated (65%) albeit 6 points lower than the last 2 quarters’ record highs.
• 64% of small businesses believe the health of their own businesses is good (2 point decrease from last quarter) and 67% are comfortable with their current cash flow (5 point decrease, but consistent with Q4 of 2022).
• 45% of small employers searched for new talent in 2023 and 60% of those employers said it was hard to keep up with salary expectations.

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National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index (December 12, 2023)

Summary: Inflation and worker shortages continue to be major headwinds as small business owners are hopeful for 2024. 

• -17% of small business owners reported higher sales in the past 3-months (unchanged from October) and the percentage expecting higher sales improved 2 points to -8%.
• 22% of small business owners rank inflation as their biggest problem (1 point lower than October).
• 25% of small businesses raised their prices in November (down 5 points from October).
• 61% of small business owners reported capital outlays in the last 6-months (up 4 points from October) and 23% are planning capital purchases in the next 3-months (down 1 point from October).
• -42% of business owners are expecting better business conditions (1 point better than October).
• 25% of small business owners reported that all their credits needs are met (2 points better than October) and 2% of small business owners reported the opposite (that their credit needs have not been met) (unchanged from the past 2-months).

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WSJ / Vistage Small Business CEO Confidence Index (December 1, 2023)

Summary: Small businesses are bullish on increased revenue for next year and generally positive despite high inflation and interest rates.

• 13% of small business owners say the economy has improved compared to 12-months ago. 40% are neutral and 47% say that the economy has gotten worse over the past year.
• 63% of small business owners say interest rates are impacting their business (up 5 points from October).
• Small business views on whether the U.S. is in a recession haven’t changed since last October. 11% of small business owners say that a soft landing has occurred (up 2 points from October), 20% are saying we are in a recession (down 2 points), and 39% say the country is approaching a recession (up 1 point from October).
• 57% of small businesses are bullish about expected revenues in the next 12 months. 42% believe profitability will improve and 38% believe that profitability will shrink.

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