“Fortunes are made and lost by thousands of men in the stock market; they are made and kept by a few dozen.” – Edwin Lefevre

The global picture continues to get gloomier. After a long time, both foreign and local institutions turned heavy sellers in the same session on August 17. With the global economy set to slow down, there could be relief as far as commodity prices go. At the same time, interest rates coming off anytime soon looks less likely.

The India growth story is intact, but can our high valuations sustain in the backdrop of a bleak global economy? That is the question that players are grappling with over the past couple of sessions. The focus for the near term will be on key technical levels.

Escorts

The June and July tractor sales numbers have been nothing to write home about, but the market seems to be betting that tractor sales in August and September will be much better, thanks to the steady progress of monsoon. Sentiment for the stock is upbeat after the company’s strong earnings performance for the June quarter. It also helped that the company had guided for a subdued performance in Q1 while announcing its March quarter numbers.

Last year, the company’s strategy to hike prices of its tractors backfired, but that now appears to be feeding into the bottomline.  The company is aiming for a 25 percent increase in exports this year. In May, the management had said that the super growth rates of the last couple of years may not repeated anytime soon. Possible that bulls are betting on Escorts other line of businesses – construction machinery, material handling, and railway equipment – to start firing.

Bata

The company clarified to the exchanges that it “continues to explore opportunities for strategic alliance / collaborations / tie-up for the Indian

market and as and when matters arise”. CNBC-TV18 had reported that the company was in talks with athletics shoemaker giant Adidas for a strategic partnership for the Indian market. Futures data indicates that Thursday’s rise could have been probably driven by covering of short positions. Open interest in call options of 1800 strike have more than doubled, accompanied by a six-fold surge in premia overnight. A good payoff for the option bulls who bought the calls cheap during the sell-off in the stock last week.

On a roll

Shares of EC Ltd defied the downtrend in the market on Thursday, as investors appear to be enthused by what they heard in the analyst call post earnings. Contrary to concerns that net interest margins may stagnate or even dip, the management expects net interest margins to gain around 20 basis points this fiscal. Highlights include a reduction in Aggregate Technical & Commercial (AT&C) losses from power distribution companies to 13 percent from 22 percent earlier.

The company has said that it is aiming to become net NPA zero by FY25 and that nine loss-making accounts worth around Rs 8,000 crore will be resolved this year. The stock hit a 52-week high on Thursday and has now gained close to 50 percent over the last month. Futures data indicate short covering of positions. Open interest has now climbed to 84 percent of marketwide position limit, and given the frenzy, there is a possibility that bears are getting out before the stock falls into the F&O ban list.

On the road

Stocks of road logistics companies have had a middling run of late, as freight rates have remained steady after a sharp rise.

Nuvama Institutional Equities on its outlook for the sector:

“Freight rates have largely remained range-bound in the past six months, albeit near all-time high levels. We expect buoyant profitability for truckers. The surface industry continues to witness strong traction, given a shift from unorganized to organized and hinterland penetration aiding growth. Also, large surface players have started procuring their diesel requirements from refineries as the arbitrage between bulk and retail procurement is back to positive. This should aid their gross margins in the coming quarters.”