The Modi factor certainly played a role in the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) victory in Madhya Pradesh, but a lot of credit should also go to the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government’s agriculture policies over a near-uninterrupted stint since 2005. Concerns over rural growth at the national level are deepening as demand and agri-growth continue to decline. The agri-GDP growth rate fell to a four-and-half year low in the July to September quarter, and averaged just 3.9% annually over 2013-14 to 2022-23. Madhya Pradesh, however, has been an outlier, averaging 6.1% over the same period. As a report in The Indian Express points out, between 2004-05 and 2021-22, the net sown area in the state saw a relatively modest rise, but the gross cropped area (GCA) has risen by close to 50%—signalling a phenomenal rise in the same agricultural land being cultivated multiple times a year.

This, without doubt, is the most robust indicator of the farmer’s growing faith in sustained high returns from agriculture—indeed, the state now has the highest GCA in the country, up from the fourth spot in 2004-05. One defining factor of Madhya Pradesh’s agri-revolution seems to be ‘ease at the last mile’. A quantum leap in irrigation coverage (from 40% to 81.5%) has been made possible by greater attention to unfinished canal-connectivity projects and improving utilisation of irrigation potential with a hyperlocal focus. The state has also ensured that even the small and marginal farmers are reached by procurement at the Minimum Support Price (MSP).

The apparatus rolled out for this includes online registration prior to marketing season, SMS alerts to avoid overcrowding of mandis, and, most significantly, a decentralised procurement system with operations even outside the primary APMC yards, closer to the villages. This helps avoid uneconomical transportation costs for small farmers while empowering them to negotiate better terms with village-level traders. The state government is also giving a handsome bonus of Rupees 150/quintal over the Centre’s MSP, and an income support of Rupees 6,000 under the Mukhya Mantri Kisan Kalyan Yojana (over and above the Rupees 6,000 from the Centre’s Kisan Samman Nidhi scheme).

The real testimony of the policies’ success is surpluses from agriculture in the state being ploughed back into the sector, a departure from other states where agriculturists tend to use these to diversify out of agriculture. If the Madhya Pradesh farmer feels secure enough to postpone such hedging and bank on farm fortunes for now, it is surely a vote of confidence in the sector’s future growth. At a time when agriculture prospects, especially in the face of climate change effects, continue to be a cause of concern —the CMIE pegs the rural unemployment rate at 9.1% in November, against the typical 6-7%—Madhya Pradesh’s agri-success should offer clues to the other states, and political parties.

A robust rural economy—certainly easier talked about than achieved—would be the deliverance that they need from the pressures of competitive populism. The urgency to announce pre-poll doles will be considerably lower if the rural sector wasn’t left so vulnerable to seasonal vagaries. To be sure, the BJP also perhaps benefited from Chouhan’s Ladli Behna Yojana, a monthly allowance to women from poor households. But that has a lot to do with his government’s failure to replicate the agri-success in industry and services. States, to that end, would do well to learn both lessons.