Yevgeny Prigozhin may have stepped back from the brink, but
events of the last 24 hours will have fundamentally altered his relationship
with Russia’s president.

Once called ‘Putin’s chef’ because of his work in catering, Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenary company have for many years
played a key, if covert, role in Russian foreign policy.

Putin used Wagner to intervene in a way that he
was unable or unwilling to do, publicly at least.

From shoring up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, to
running bot farms accused of trying to interfere in the 2016 US elections,
Wagner has played an increasingly important role in some of the world’s most
troubled locations.

But it is in Africa that the mercenaries are thought to have
the biggest footprint.

In Mali, for example, where coups in 2020 and 2021 saw the
instillation of a military regime, Wagner are heavily involved in fighting a
long-running Islamist insurgency. Although it is believed they are there
at the behest of the Russian government, Wagner are the boots on the ground.

In the Central African Republic, where they are said to be
helping the government to defend the capital from rebel groups, Wagner have
been accused of widespread human rights abuses.

Given that it seems likely that Wagner will now be
ostracised by the Kremlin, what will happen to the fighters in Africa and the
governments they support?

On top of that, they are thought to control significant
mineral resources, the source of much of the group’s wealth.

Will Prigozhin
be able to maintain his grip on these, now that he has fallen so far from
favour?