The political news last week that could have profound consequences caused almost no discussion: the White House has suggested New Zealand join Aukus.

Aukus is a trilateral security pact among Australia, the United Kingdom and
the United States to share military technology. The agreement will enable Australia to acquire between three and five Virginia-class nuclear submarines and then build eight submarines themselves at the eye-watering cost of A$368 billion. Aukus also has a second pillar that enables the sharing of non-nuclear technology, such as for electronic warfare.

The Defence Minister, Andrew Little, says the Government is exploring joining the second pillar. The minister says the “geostrategic situation we have in the Pacific” requires a big investment so our military can continue to operate alongside Australia and America. What the minister failed to mention is China’s “severe concern and firm opposition” to Aukus.

Aukus follows the formation of the Quad, an Indo-Pacific alliance among India, Japan, Australia and the US with “a shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific” and for a “rules-based maritime order” to counter China’s maritime claims. Despite Jacinda Ardern having said “there’s no discussion” of New Zealand joining the Quad, New Zealand has become an associate member.

Two former Labour prime ministers – Helen Clark and Australia’s Paul Keating – have opposed the Aukus agreement as adding to tensions with China. For a wonderful polemic against Aukus, Google Paul Keating at the National Press Club.

If a National Government announced it was exploring entering into a military agreement with the United States, the left would go nuts. Instead, with almost no debate we are entering an arms race with China.

This is a complex issue. Let us start by dismissing the claim that Aukus violates the Treaty of Rarotonga, which makes the South Pacific a nuclear weapons-free zone. It does not. Australia’s submarines will not carry nuclear weapons.

As an aside, global warming is a much greater threat to the Pacific Islands. It is hard to see how the world can get to zero emissions without using nuclear power. We should be urging the US Navy to share the small-scale nuclear reactor technology that it has operated safely for over 60 years.

The real question is, is China a security threat to New Zealand?

When the Americans asked New Zealand to send troops to counter the “security threat” in Vietnam, Keith Holyoake asked: “How many troops are the Italians sending?”

“Why would Italy send troops to Vietnam?” asked the Americans. “Hanoi is closer to Milan than Wellington,” said Holyoake, “and it is easier to walk than swim.”

Beijing is even further away.

America feels threatened because by some measures, China has overtaken the US as the world’s largest economy. China can afford and is now building a navy to challenge America’s supremacy.

China is being more assertive. China has territorial disputes with nearly all its neighbours. China has claimed and militarised the South China Sea.

China has not kept its commitment that Hong Kong could remain democratic.

China refuses to rule out using force to achieve reunification with Taiwan.

China’s human rights record is disturbing.

China is a Communist Party dictatorship.

In contrast, we share democratic values with the United States. Since WWII, New Zealand’s security has been assured by the American Seventh Fleet.

China challenging America is the new reality.

Is joining Aukus the correct response?

The Chinese do not think so. China’s Foreign Affairs Department spokesperson Zhao Lijian claims, “the nuclear submarine cooperation between the US, the UK and Australia has seriously undermined regional peace and stability, intensified the arms race and undermined international non-proliferation efforts”.

China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. This country has joined China’s Belt and Road initiative. China has signed a free trade agreement with New Zealand, something the US Senate refuses to consider.

Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta has warned that New Zealand’s exports to China could be caught up in a “storm”, saying “it may only be a matter of time before the storm gets closer to us”.

“The signal I’m sending to exporters,” she said, “is that they need to think about diversification.”

New Zealand’s exporters are only too aware of their dependency.

A market that may one day rival China is India, whose population now exceeds China’s. John Key made a free trade agreement with India a priority and visited twice. Jacinda Ardern never went to India. Australia has a free trade agreement with India, but we do not.

There is no other obvious alternative to the New Zealand-China trade.

New Zealand has no territorial disputes with China. When we recognised the Government of China 50 years ago, we acknowledged Taiwan is part of China.

Paul Keating and Helen Clark are correct. New Zealand’s strategic interest is in the peaceful resolution of conflicts with China rather than sleepwalking into anti-Chinese alliances.

– Richard Prebble is a former leader of the Act Party and a former member of the Labour Party.