“European countries are importing more oil from the Gulf states and elsewhere to offset the loss of Russian oil exports,” says James Swanston, a Middle East expert at Capital Economics. “On top of this, there have been increasing exports of Qatar’s LNG [liquefied natural gas] to Europe.”

Extremely low water levels in the Panama Canal also mean ships have been getting redirected through Suez.

The inflation risks will alarm the Bank of England’s rate setters and policymakers elsewhere in the world. 

Disruptions so far are not enough to affect the consumer prices indices (CPI), the official measure of inflation. However, if the situation escalates, the impact could be significant, says Ben May, director of global macro research at Oxford Economics.

If current freight prices are sustained, global inflation could be 0.6 percentage points higher than it otherwise would have been in a year’s time, he warns. This is the difference between inflation at 3.4pc and 4pc by January 2025, according to Oxford Economics’ current forecasts.

Interest rate cuts priced in by markets in the US, UK and Europe would likely become unfeasible, May says.

Meanwhile, a jump in oil prices to $100 a barrel would add a month to the Bank of England’s fight to bring inflation down, according to Capital Economics’ modelling.

Analysts do not expect oil prices to climb this high at the moment, but they are watching closely to see whether the conflict will sprawl beyond the Bab al-Mandab strait.