Now is a good time to lock in higher bond yields. The maximum opportunity may have already passed but it’s not too late for bond investors. 

Cash should continue to offer a decent risk-free income for at least the first half of the year. History cautions against tying up too much of your patient money in cash, but it looks attractive for the time being.

As for shares, last year’s cautious optimism looks about right, 12 months on. Shares are neither cheap nor expensive. Earnings forecasts are a bit too high but falling interest rates will support valuations. 

The long run of US outperformance will fade, so a global approach makes sense, it naturally weights your portfolio to the US but allows for better relative performance elsewhere.

It’s finger in the air stuff, but I pencil in 5,200 for the S&P 500 and 8,200 for the FTSE 100. Income investing should work well as pay-out ratios remain low and cash will become a less attractive alternative as the year progresses.

A defensive, income-focused approach makes the UK look relatively appealing. Chinese stimulus will help both its domestic market and European exporters too.

In a year of political uncertainty, with a string of unpredictable elections, gold will be seen as a safe haven and stay above $2,000 an ounce. Slowing demand will keep the oil price below $90. Sterling will flatline as rates fall on both sides of the Atlantic.

Anyway, I offer these predictions with the humility of experience. As with last year’s forecasts, some will be better than others. 

Tom Stevenson is an investment director at Fidelity International. The views are his own.