Recession in doubt as economy achieves surprise growth in November

[ad_1]

The economy grew by 0.1% in November, partly aided by the football World Cup, according to official figures which call into question predictions the UK is already in recession.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed pressure on demand from the effects of high inflation but a boost from people packing pubs and bars to watch events unfold on the pitch in Qatar.

Economists had predicted a negative growth figure – of around 0.2%.

The figure for November came on the back of a positive growth reading the previous month, largely explained by activity getting back to normal after disruption to output from the late Queen’s death.

The additional bank holiday for the funeral in September saw most businesses close.

The Bank of England is among public bodies to have forecast that the UK fell into recession during the third quarter of 2022.

Should a reading by the ONS for the October to December period show a negative growth figure, then the economy will have met the criteria for recession: two consecutive quarters of contraction.

It seems the possibility will be tight.

The ONS said that gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.3% in the three months to November.

That incorporates the decline of 0.6% in output measured during September and the 0.5% recovery in October.

ONS director of economic statistics Darren Morgan said: “The economy grew a little in November, with increases in telecommunications and computer programming helping to push the economy forward.

“Pubs and bars also did well as people went out to watch World Cup games.

“This was partially offset by further falls in some manufacturing industries, including the often-erratic pharmaceutical industry, as well as falls in transport and postal, partially due to the impact of strikes.

“Over the last three months, however, the economy still shrank – mainly due to the impact of the extra bank holiday for the funeral of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth in September.”

[ad_2]

Source link