[ad_1]
Although brokers are more confident about the commercial property market than last year, economic slowdown and persistent interest rate hikes equivalent to 375 basis points since late-2021 may have started to catch up with the market, says John Loos, FNB’s property strategist.
The bank published its Commercial Property Broker Survey for the first quarter of 2023, which found that most (51%) commercial property brokers in South Africa’s six major metros are content with the current state of the market.
This is an increase from 47% of brokers in the final quarter of 2022.
The survey data was collected from brokers in the City of Joburg and Ekurhuleni (Greater Johannesburg), Tshwane, Ethekwini, the City of Cape Town, and Nelson Mandela Bay.
“This means that the broker business confidence level start in 2023 is still higher than the level at which it started in 2022.
“However, this level of confidence remains mediocre, still implying that a significant 47% of respondents are dissatisfied with conditions,” Loos said.
Business activity for the brokers, however, paints a less optimistic picture.
When asked for their ratings of market activity levels on a scale of 1 to 10, the group of respondents’ average rating was slightly lower in all property classes, namely: office, industrial and warehouse space, as well as retail.
Commercial property brokers in South Africa remain positive about the Industrial and Warehouse Property Market, which has the highest activity rating of the three property classes, despite a slight decline from 6.35 to 6.31 in the first quarter of 2023.
Retail property activity dropped from 4.71 to 4.44 in the same period, while the Office Property Market Activity Rating remained the weakest, with a decline from 4.15 to 4.08.
“Economic growth slowed in the final quarter of 2022, as expected, and this may have had a partial cooling impact on the Commercial Property Market going into 2023,” said Loos.
“Much of the interest rate hiking impact on the economy comes with a lag and can thus impact on property demand indirectly over and above the direct impact via the increased cost of servicing mortgage debt,” said the FNB strategist.
During the final quarter of 2022, there was a slowing in real GDP growth from 1.8% in the third quarter to finish the year at a decline of 1.3% – this weakening may be starting to be felt in the commercial property market.
South Africa’s rate hike cycle started in November 2021, and FNB anticipates that there will be one more hike of 25 basis points in March, bringing the cycle to its peak with prime at 11.00%.
The prediction is influenced by the decrease in CPI inflation from a high of 7.8% year-on-year in mid-2022 to 6.9% in January 2023, with a significant decrease in fuel price inflation being a contributing factor, said Loos.
Read: There is huge demand for these coastal towns in South Africa
[ad_2]
Source link