Reported and written by Kurt Badenhausen, Brendan Coffey, Anthony Crupi, Michael McCann and Eben Novy-Williams.

Professional golf is currently in limbo.

For decades the PGA Tour and its European counterpart were the sport’s two dominant forces. Then two years ago, Saudi-backed LIV threw billions into the ring, upsetting the entire system virtually overnight.

Now the three groups are trying to merge their commercial interests, and struggling to iron out a deal palatable for a trio of organizations that came to the table with disparate advantages, and disparate goals. As the Dec. 31 deadline to seal the partnership looms, no side has been quiet. The PGA Tour is discussing a separate investment from a group full of traditional sports owners; and LIV Golf just lured Jon Rahm, one of the sport’s top talents, away from the tour.

The fight over the future of professional golf is a possible proxy battle for other sports. Money is awfully convincing, and many global sports—be they leagues like the NBA or individual sports like tennis—are constantly at odds with their biggest stars about compensation. That’s the opening into which LIV Golf drove a massive wedge, buying itself a seat at the table as executives broker the sport’s future.

Here’s a look at some of the different negotiating levers, some specific to golf and some more general to global sports, influencing the PGA-LIV talks:

Money (Advantage LIV): Let’s start with the big one. If the PGA Tour-LIV battle over the past two years were solely about money, LIV would have won in a landslide. PIF, the Saudi sovereign wealth fund with more than $600 billion under management, reportedly spent more than $3 billion standing up LIV Golf, not including long-term compensation for players that vastly outstripped what they were earning previously. LIV also has far less of a profit motive, a nice advantage in any business feud.

The PGA Tour reported $1.9 billion in revenue in 2022, with $1.87 billion in costs. The group also spent the last few months talking with potential investors, which could at least partially alleviate some of this imbalance.

American Power Players (Advantage PGA): The PGA announced earlier this month that a group of a dozen team owners, bankers and politically connected networkers that call themselves the Strategic Sports Group had been chosen to conduct negotiations outside of talks with LIV. Last week, ESPN reported they were nearing a deal to give the PGA Tour “more than $3 billion” in capital. It’s a group with a lot of financial and sports heft: multibillionaire hedge fund manager and Mets owner Steven Cohen, Home Depot co-founder and Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank, billionaire Tom Ricketts, Milwaukee Brewers owner Mark Attanasio, Fenway Sports Group owner John Henry, FSG chairman Tom Werner, Boston Celtics owner Wyc Grousbeck, former Bucks owner Marc Lasry, as well as a fund backed by the Bezos family.

Saudi Arabia may have the ultimate money advantage (the country generates about $1 billion each day in revenue from oil exports), but the Strategic Sports Group can call upon at least $34 billion in personal wealth, based on Forbes estimates, as well as relationships throughout the investment world. It probably also doesn’t hurt that the group has friends in high places. Werner is a longtime friend of former President Bill Clinton and former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton, while Ricketts’ son Todd was lead fundraiser for Donald Trump’s first campaign, and son Pete is a GOP senator from Nebraska.

Media (Advantage PGA): Back in January, LIV inked a two-year deal (with an option for a third baked in) with the CW, a move that marked the broadcaster’s first foray into sports programming after 15 years of airing primetime fare targeting a young, primarily female audience. (Among the CW’s top-rated primetime shows were Jane the Virgin and Gossip Girl.) While the network is in the midst of rebranding itself as a destination for sports—since landing the LIV deal, the CW has added a slate of 50 annual ACC basketball and football games, and has picked up the rights to NASCAR’s Xfinity Series in a seven-year $800 million pact—the abrupt shift from Nancy Drew to Bryce DeChambeau was a bit rocky. In February, the Sunday round of LIV’s inaugural CW tournament averaged 291,000 viewers, and the Oct. 22 Team Championship in Miami eked out 152,000 impressions.

In the wake of its first season, LIV is looking to carve out a stand-alone TV deal for its Friday rounds, which in year one were streamed on a handful of platforms, including the league’s subscription YouTube platform and the CW’s app. (The CW’s syndication schedule prevents the network from carrying the Friday rounds over-the-air.) LIV has said that it will pitch the opening rounds to the broadcast and cable networks, although the plan has been sidelined temporarily as the PIF/PGA/DP World Tour situation continues to develop.

For the PGA, it’ll be business as usual in 2024, at least on the TV front, with CBS, NBC and Golf Channel continuing to reap the rewards of their long association with the sport. This year’s top-rated broadcast, the final round of the 87th Masters Tournament on CBS, averaged 12.1 million viewers, peaking at 15 million as Jon Rahm clinched the Green Jacket at around 7 p.m. EDT.

Jon Rahm (Advantage LIV): Rahm gets his own category because 1) he won more on the PGA Tour than anyone else this year, 2) he was previously highly critical of LIV, and 3) his defecting in the middle of merger talks became the sport’s biggest source of intrigue. Rahm’s recent success guarantees him entry into many of golf’s biggest events for a long time (more on that in a bit), but there’s likely more at play. Some have speculated about whether the PGA agreeing to take Saudi investment has normalized the idea of players doing the same; others wondered whether Rahm’s move signaled his belief that a broader deal won’t get done. “I’ve always been very interested in history and legacy, and right now the PGA Tour has that,” Rahm told reporters at the 2022 U.S. Open. Right now. What a difference a year makes.

Players (Push): It’s not just Rahm. LIV’s money-centric sales pitch has been effective for many of the sport’s biggest names, including older stars like Phil Mickelson and Dustin Johnson, and younger ones still in their prime like Cameron Smith and Brooks Koepka. That said, the sport’s two biggest global stars—Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy—remain staunch PGA loyalists. The pair has partnered with the tour to create TGL, a team golf league set to launch in 2025.  

Access To Tournaments/Rankings (Advantage PGA): One of the PGA Tour’s biggest bargaining chips remains its untainted relationship with golf’s biggest events, like the majors and the Ryder Cup, and the gatekeepers of the all-important Official World Golf Rankings. In October, the OWGR denied LIV’s application for its golfers to receive ranking points on the grounds that LIV’s closed format didn’t pass competitive muster. It’s one thing money can’t buy, and it’s critical for many golfers, especially those who haven’t won majors, as the sport’s biggest events rely on those rankings to grant automatic entry into their fields. Viewed through this lens, Rahm’s departure might be more of a one-off. The Spaniard’s success has given him lifetime entry into the Masters, access to the U.S. Open through 2031, and entry into the PGA Championship and British Open through 2027.

Legal (Advantage PGA): The PGA Tour might not have a lot of economic leverage over PIF, but in several ways it has the law on its side. First, the PGA Tour was winning the litigation before the merger announcement, including in gaining court orders that would have compelled PIF and its governor, Yasir Othman Al-Rumayyan, to comply with subpoenas in the U.S. Al-Rumayyan would have had to provide sworn testimony on sensitive topics related to PIF and the Saudi government. The subpoenas would set a precedent that PIF, which has investments in numerous U.S. companies, could be dragged into U.S. litigation involving companies with which PIF has equity.

Although the LIV-PGA Tour settlement led to the case’s dismissal “with prejudice,” meaning the legal claims are over and can’t be restarted, the parties could still sue each other over what happened thereafter. At that point, the subpoena issue would resurface. On that front, the PGA Tour might argue LIV Golf has tortiously interfered with PGA Tour stars, including Rahm, by inducing them to sign. 

The PGA Tour also has some leverage through the U.S. government. The Justice Department is reviewing the planned merger for antitrust compliance and a number of U.S. senators have objected on “sportswashing” grounds—that LIV is using golf to distract from Saudi human rights abuses—and because, through the PGA Tour, LIV would have access to courses near U.S. military facilities. 

Although LIV could walk away from the PGA Tour, it would be more likely to attract a negative response from the U.S. government by doing so. Most problematically for PIF, cutting ties with the PGA Tour could increase the possibility the Justice Department uses its broad powers to scrutinize PIF’s business dealings in the U.S. The U.S. government would likely prefer there be more American investors, be they Steve Cohen or Fenway Sports Group, in any PGA Tour-LIV-DP World Tour joint venture.

Sponsors (Advantage PGA): Sponsors have been the lifeblood of the PGA Tour and its players dating back to the days of Arnold Palmer and Jack Nicklaus. Players remain marketable to golf fans with high disposable incomes long after their best days on the course. The result: Five of the 15 highest-paid athletes of all time are golfers when adjusted for inflation; less than 5% of their career earnings are from prize money.

Sponsors have walked away from many of their deals with LIV golfers. Mickelson’s sponsors dropped him en masse after his comments about Saudi Arabia’s human rights abuses. This year, Adidas parted ways with Dustin Johnson and Sergio Garcia, ending two long-term affiliations. Another Johnson sponsor, Royal Bank of Canada, ended its relationship after his move to LIV Golf. Sponsors are wary of the optics of being affiliated with LIV, and they also get less exposure with the minuscule TV ratings  for LIV events. Part of the massive LIV signing bonuses are meant to cover lost endorsement earnings.

Some sponsors have stuck around. Johnson and TaylorMade are still together, as is Brooks Koepka with Nike and Srixon. Rahm said that his recently signed extension with Callaway would remain after his LIV move.

Sponsors have always helped foot the bill for PGA tournaments, and it is a revenue stream largely cut off from LIV at this time. But some sponsors are wondering if the price tags are worth it. Wells Fargo has been the title sponsor of the PGA’s Charlotte event since 2011. This year, the event was deemed one of the tour’s eight elevated tournaments that carry a $20 million purse. The tour is looking for title sponsors to come up with $25 million to help fund that. The banking giant decided to end its affiliation with the event after 2024 when its contract expires.

LIV is going to have trouble attracting significant tournament sponsorships, but the PGA runs the risk that more of their tourney sponsors start to recalibrate their spending to account for so many stars no longer on the tour.