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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s surprise visit to Washington Wednesday was designed to bolster the Ukrainian leader with a show of solidarity as well as financial and military support in the face of a relentless Russian attack and a bitter winter.
President Joe Biden literally rolled out the red carpet for Zelenskyy, who was greeted in the White House driveway by the president and first lady and quickly ushered into the Oval Office for a bilateral meeting and a joint press conference. Zelenskyy then received a rousing welcome on Capitol Hill before he made a prime-time address to a joint meeting of Congress.
In the new year the countries might find that their interests lie on increasingly divergent tracks. Washington should take care to ensure it isn’t dragged down the wrong one.
The ceremonial solidarity seems to reflect the United States’ internal policy well. America has been Ukraine’s primary security benefactor since Russian President Vladimir Putin opted for a war of choice that is failing in all respects. Washington has showered more than $21 billion of security aid to the Ukrainian military, from High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and Switchblade drones to Stinger anti-aircraft systems.
This week, the Biden administration announced another $1.8 billion in weapons that for the first time include the Patriot anti-missile defense system. There will be more U.S. security assistance going forward: The annual spending bill released by Congress this week would provide Kyiv with an additional $45 billion in support, even more than President Joe Biden requested.
Senior U.S. officials across the national security bureaucracy also remain steadfast proponents of Ukraine. As Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated during a Nov. 30 press conference, “Our collective resolve to support Ukraine is and will continue to be ironclad … for as long as it takes for Ukraine to succeed.” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has stated emphatically that the U.S. is focused on assisting Ukraine’s efforts “to take back every inch of their sovereign territory.”
But this unity doesn’t go as deep as it seems, whatever the images coming out of Washington on Wednesday suggest. In fact, in the new year the countries might find that their interests lie on increasingly divergent tracks. Washington should take care to ensure it isn’t dragged down the wrong one by a frantic sense of urgency to see Russia defeated and humiliated. Now is a good time to be honest about the limited extent of U.S. military and financial support to the Ukrainians, how long this support can last and — just as critically — how we would like the nearly yearlong war to end.
While the White House has been clear that it wants Russia to lose, it doesn’t necessarily want Russia to lose too quickly for fear Putin, with his back against the wall, will lash out in a desperate attempt to stave off defeat. Biden has been right not to cave to the criticism of those pundits and unnamed U.S. officials who have faulted the administration for allowing Putin’s bellicose threats to deter more sophisticated U.S. weapons shipments to the Ukrainians. While it’s difficult for many to envision Putin using a tactical nuclear weapon, such a scenario isn’t impossible, if still very unlikely.
The truth is none of us know for certain what Putin will do. Yet Zelenskyy is loudly clamoring for more U.S. advanced weapons, no doubt frustrated that the lingering threat of escalation is dissuading the U.S. from providing him the long-range weapons systems he believes are required to strike Russian military facilities, enhance Ukraine’s air defense and ultimately win the war.
The U.S., however, has other national security priorities beyond aiding a Ukrainian military victory, however morally satisfying it would be. The U.S., for example, has core interests in preventing the war from spreading into NATO territory, preserving a sense of predictability with Russia in keeping nuclear weapons off the table and maintaining communication with Russia to avoid unnecessary accidents that could lead to a major crisis. U.S. policymakers can’t afford to focus exclusively on Ukraine’s best interests as they fine-tune and execute their policy to secure America’s.
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