The Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine splintered the global energy market into countries that buy Russian oil and those that don’t. Next year could provide hints about how long the split will last. 

Through rolling boycotts, expanding sanctions and a novel price cap that took effect this month, Western nations and some of their allies have begun turning away from such imports, pushing Russian producers to find new buyers for millions of barrels of oil each day. Restrictions on diesel and other fuels slated for February could have an even greater impact.