Earlier this month, Sweden’s leading industrialist Jacob Wallenberg and other Swedish and Finnish business executives met the security and foreign policy elite of the two countries in Helsinki including both military commanders and Finland’s president.

The timing for the meeting is striking. Both countries will decide in the coming weeks whether to change decades of security policy in northern Europe and join Nato. Everything points to Finland taking the plunge to apply for membership of the western military alliance and, while the outcome is less certain for Sweden, most experts expect Stockholm to follow Helsinki’s lead.

Applying to join Nato would not only upend decades of security thinking in the once neutral countries, but it would also subtly change the business environment. Just as in the broader debate on the military alliance, Finland appears to be taking the lead. Many Finnish companies have been advocating Nato membership for years, arguing this would firmly show their country’s proper place in the west.

“All business leaders view the membership extremely positively. They have had this view for a very long time, unlike the politicians,” says one of Finland’s leading business executives.

Finland, which shares a 1,340km border with Russia, more than all of Nato does today, has long held an ability to keep hopes of a decent relationship with its eastern neighbour, including commercial ties, separate from its serious and in-depth planning on how to deal with it as a security threat.

But for many in Helsinki, Russia’s aggression against Georgia in 2008, then Ukraine in 2014, and now Ukraine once again has changed the calculation. Finnish companies ranging from Nokia in telecoms equipment to Fazer in confectionery have announced plans to leave Russia, which once represented more than a quarter of all foreign trade in the 1980s. “There has been a gradual shift from east to west,” says the executive. Now, businesses are hoping for a “Nato dividend”.

One well-connected business leader in Helsinki says: “Nato makes Finland more attractive for investments, especially after Ukraine. Maybe even as a place to work.”

The Nordics may seem secure enough already but politicians and executives are convinced that with a revanchist Russia looking increasingly aggressive, Nato membership will help the investment climate. A former minister mentions country risk measures, often used in assessing foreign direct investment: “The security of a country — economically, socially and militarily — decides the investment climate. Nato membership would strengthen that.”

Certain industries also are hoping for a stronger boost from eventual Nato membership. Sweden’s strong defence sector, led by Saab, a big Wallenberg investment, could get an extra fillip from being part of Nato after already receiving help from the general increase in military budgets across Europe, officials in both Stockholm and Helsinki say.

Nokia and Ericsson, the two main European competitors to China’s Huawei in telecoms equipment, also seem hopeful that being even more firmly anchored in the west would help their prospects.

“They understand this is a business opportunity for them too. Military security is important for Nokia and Ericsson,” says a person close to Nokia’s current leadership. More specific sectors, such as Finland’s burgeoning cyber security industry centred on F-Secure, founded by former Nokia chair Risto Siilasmaa, could also receive additional support.

Businesses with close ties to Russia, such as utility Fortum and tyremaker Nokian, are set to come under further scrutiny while Finnish companies also seek to find a way to extricate themselves from Moscow’s flagship project in Finland, the contentious Fennovoima nuclear plant.

The Nato debate among business in Sweden is less mature but also largely positive. The view — as yet unexpressed — of the Wallenbergs could weigh heavily on the ruling Social Democrats. “I expect there will be a big lobbying effort behind the scenes,” in support of Nato, says one Swedish business executive.

Ultimately, military and security considerations are likely to push both Finland and Sweden towards Nato. Both countries have seen the unfortunate fate of non-Nato Ukraine and are drawing their own conclusions. But in the background, Finnish and Swedish companies have their part to play in convincing politicians of the need to join — and could draw some benefits later on for their quiet advocacy.

richard.milne@ft.com

@rmilneNordic