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A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole
So far there’s been limited reaction to the victory over the weekend of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan, which left the cross-strait status quo largely intact and Beijing predictably irritated.
Taiwan’s markets didn’t seem particularly perturbed as stocks edged up 0.4 per cent, although the Taiwan dollar did ease slightly to a three-week low.
There was also a muted response to the surprise decision by China’s central bank to skip a rate cut on its medium-term lending facility loans and instead just pump more liquidity into the banking system.
Investors seem to have become used to being disappointed by Beijing’s drip-drip of stimulus, just as there are few expectations around the Q4 GDP report and monthly data due on Wednesday.
The suspicion is the PBOC wanted to avoid putting more downward pressure on the yuan, although the currency still touched a four-week low in the wake of the decision.
Indeed, there is an argument investors would actually reward a truly aggressive easing from Beijing if they thought it had a chance of reviving growth.
In any case, interest rate differentials should not be a hindrance for the yuan much longer if market pricing on Federal Reserve and ECB rate cuts is right.
Futures now imply a 73 per cent chance of a first Fed cut in March, as a soft producer price report last Friday helped to offset disappointment over the previous day’s consumer price data.
That led analysts to nudge down forecasts for the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation measure to a benign 0.2 per cent for December. That would see the annual pace slow to under 3 per cent for the first time since March 20221 and leave the six-month annualised rate at the Fed’s target of 2.0 per cent.
Markets are more than fully priced for the ECB to cut in April, even though its chief economist over the weekend flagged June as a more likely window.
There’s a chorus line of ECB speakers at the Davos meeting this week, including President Lagarde on Wednesday, who will likely push back against pricing of an April move, and just as likely be ignored by markets.
Fed speakers this week include the always-influential New York Fed boss Williams, but perhaps more telling will be governor Waller on Tuesday, given he will be addressing the economic outlook and is assumed to be close to Chair Powell in thinking.
What he says about the clear downward trajectory of the core PCE measure should make for interesting reading.
One risk to the good news story on inflation is the disruption to shipping in the Red Sea, with the U.S. military reporting on Sunday it had downed a Houthi cruise missile attack on its ships.
Analysts estimate 12 per cent of world trade and 30 per cent of container traffic typically goes through the Red Sea, but transits have dropped 35-45 per cent in the past month and it takes an extra 15 days for ships to take the alternate route around the Cape of Good Hope.
S&P reports shipping rates have increased to more than $4,500 per forty-foot container on Asia-to-Europe lanes, from one-third of that level in October.
Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:
– EU trade balance, industrial output for Nov
– Participation by ECB board members Christine Lagarde and Piero Cipollone in Eurogroup meeting in Brussels
– Start of World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting
(By Wayne Cole; Editing by Edmund Klamann)
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