Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders is on course to win the most votes in parliamentary elections on Wednesday that were dominated by debate about rising immigration in the Netherlands, according to an exit poll.

Wilders’ Freedom party is projected to win 35 seats, doubling its total, followed by a left-wing alliance led by the EU’s former climate chief Frans Timmermans with 26, and then the Liberal VVD with 23.

The poll by Ipsos for broadcaster NPO has proved to be a reliable guide to the final results, expected on Thursday morning.

Wilders’ victory, if confirmed, will send shockwaves through the EU, which has been struggling to absorb a fresh wave of migrants from Africa and Asia.

Read more on Dutch elections here.