Like a sequel to Samuel Beckett’s famous play, traders are still waiting for the Bank of Japan, led by governor Haruhiko Kuroda, to announce the future of yield curve control (YCC).

Reuters is reporting that a decision is likely between 2-4pm AEDT, but there is no set time for an announcement.

In anticipation of either the watering down or abandonment of the BoJ’s program to keep 10-year Japanese government bond rates below 0.5 per cent, traders again pushed the rate above 0.5 per cent for the fourth trading day in a row.

I think that’s what you might call a strong hint about what they want Kuroda and his colleagues to announce today.

“The trade-off for the BOJ here is shocking the market and creating some volatility event versus sort of digging yourself deeper into the hole,” James Athey, investment director at Abrdn, told Reuters.

Athey, who has a short position on Japanese government bonds (basically a bet on their price falling), said the best course of action for the central bank would be to get rid of YCC.

“Now is the time, because a lot of investors are short,” he added.

Of course he would say that, given his institution stands to make a lot of money if the BoJ stops buying bonds and therefore the price of them tumbles.

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But, as the Reserve Bank of Australia found out in 2021, there’s only so long that even a central bank can swim against the tide before the market swamps it (except, perhaps, if you’re the US Fed).