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When newly appointed Minister of Electricity Kgosientsho Ramokgopa recently disclosed that Unit 1 of the Koeberg nuclear power station will return to service 45 days after the latest deadline of 23 July, he was putting it mildly.
The new target date of 13 September is a full 90 days after the original date of 8 June, when the 180-day outage was supposed to end.
This means the project team is overshooting its deadline by 50% and extending it to 270 days.
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Apart from the fact that the unit’s precious 920 megawatts (MW) of generation capacity will be unavailable during the cold winter months when demand increases – thereby adding about one stage of load shedding – it leaves a very tight window for completion of the similar steam generator replacement in the other unit before the expiry of Koeberg’s licence in mid-2024.
The purpose of the steam generator replacements is to extend the lifetime of both units of Africa’s only nuclear power plant by a further 20 years.
In a statement last week Eskom celebrated a “major milestone”.
It said: “The first steam generator has been removed from the containment building and placed in the storage building that was erected to house the steam generators. This is a significant accomplishment for the Koeberg team, the contractor and the numerous local and international subcontractors involved in the project.”
According to a source close to the project who asked not to be named, all three steam generators should have been removed already and the focus should have been on the placement of the new ones by now.
Surfers ride waves in front of Eskom’s Koeberg nuclear power station, viewed from Melkbosstrand beach in Cape Town. Image: Bloomberg
The original plan was to have both units in service during the winter months to limit load shedding as demand increases, and to start the outage on Unit 2 in September.
This is now scheduled for November, which leaves about a month to spare if the second outage is done within the 180 days it is supposed to take.
If the extension project in one of the two units is not completed by mid-2024 when Koeberg’s licence expires, it will be switched off and Eskom will have to apply for a new licence from scratch.
This could result in a further extended period without full generating capacity from Koeberg.
What exactly the reason is for the delay in the current outage, is not clear. Eskom refers in its statement to “some unexpected challenges during the execution in the current outage” but fails to give any detail.
When asked about it, the utility cited “contractual reasons” that preclude it from expanding on the reasons.
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The source told Moneyweb that this kind of project, which has often been done elsewhere in the world but is a first for Eskom, is usually done in a turnkey format. Eskom however chose to manage it themselves. The result is regular interference by Eskom.
He says in other countries similar projects are completed within 90 days.
Another source with intimate knowledge of Koeberg and its operations says Eskom is really good at operating Koeberg but has historically struggled to keep to deadlines when a unit is switched off for fuel replacement or maintenance.
He also asked not to be named and said the reason Eskom battles to stick to outage deadlines may be that it has only the two nuclear units. A bigger fleet would have allowed Eskom to gain more experience and deliver better results.
Read: Is Eskom really doing more maintenance under De Ruyter? [Jan 2023]
The delay at Koeberg comes against the background of a significant improvement in Eskom’s plant availability and, as a result, some relief from intense load shedding.
According to the latest available data, plant availability improved to 58.51% in the week ended 19 March, compared to an average of 52.76% year to date.
Unplanned breakdowns dropped to 30.70% from 35.67% the previous week.
Source: Eskom
According to Eskom, six of its coal-fired power stations achieved an energy availability factor (EAF) of 70% that week, a milestone last achieved on 8 May 2022. The six are Camden, Duvha, Matla, Lethabo, Matimba and Medupi.
Eskom acting CEO Calib Cassim said: “While this is still early progress, it shows a positive trajectory from actions taken to recover Eskom generation plants. This is consistent with Eskom’s target to achieve 70% EAF by [its] 2025 financial year.”
Read: At last – some power station improvement, says Eskom
Chris Yelland, managing director of EE Business Intelligence, however cautioned that Eskom’s generating units are unpredictable and unreliable.
“You can have a good week as much as you can have a bad week, when three generating units break down at once,” he says.
Source of relief
Independent energy analyst Clyde Mallinson pointed out that the demand for electricity dropped by about 3 000MW over the long weekend around Human Rights Day on 21 March.
That represents about three stages of load shedding. That, combined with improved plant performance, brought relief for electricity users.
“It had nothing to do with the EFF shutdown or the new electricity minister,” said Mallinson.
Listen to Moneyweb editor Ryk van Niekerk’s interview with C5 Capital CEO André Pienaar on the prospects for further nuclear power in SA (or read the English transcript*):
This transcript is a translation of the original interview conducted in Afrikaans, which aired on RSG Geldsake, here.
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