Khalistan Movement: A litmus test for India-Canada relations? – Defence News

By Araudra Singh

With the Khalistan issue resurfacing in the recent past, India-Canada ties were already on icy territory when Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau publicly alleged a “potential link” between the Indian government and the killing of a pro-Khalistan leader Hardeep Nijjar, a designated terrorist by India. The unprecedented allegations, unsubstantiated by any evidence, were followed by a furious response from India. Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) Spokesperson Arindam Bagchi deemed the Prime Minister’s claim as “absurd” and labelled Canada a “safe haven for terrorists, for extremists, and for organized crime.”. This is particularly striking as India’s nemesis, Pakistan was the only country which till now was branded in a similar light, by India. Since the allegations on September 18, the two countries have been embroiled in frenzied official recriminations involving mutual suspension of visa services and reduction in diplomatic missions. Instead of following due process by concluding the probe beforehand and prosecuting based on evidence, the Prime Minister’s allegations come like a bolt from the blue, with no charges on anyone yet, let alone evidence. Ottawa’s contention, rooted in domestic political expediency, might have opened a pandora’s box for both Canada’s ties with India and its economy.

Political Compulsions

The violent Khalistan movement in India gained the limelight in the 1980s which demanded a separate nation for Sikhs. The separatist cause though, soon lost support in the aftermath Indian government’s Operation Blue Star of 1984 which oversaw the arrests and killing of several militants and the subsequent assassination of the then Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, which was followed by intemperate anti-Sikh riots across the country. While there are no active insurgents in India today, the same cannot be observed overseas. Many Khalistani separatists have migrated to countries like the US, the UK and Canada. The government in Delhi has time and again requested Ottawa to take legal action, including extraditing the extremists, but to no avail.

Under then-Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, Canada’s unwillingness to extradite Sikh separatists wanted in India for terrorism resulted in 1985 Air India flight bombings, killing hundreds, most of whom were of Indian origin. Amongst all the countries where Khalistani insurgents operate, Canada today has witnessed the most strident separatist activity. From attacks on Indian diplomatic premises and places of worship to incitement of violence against the Indian diaspora and holding plebiscites for the creation of Khalistan, secessionism has continued unabated. This is despite 26 extradition requests to Ottawa over the last five to six years.

Ottawa’s inaction towards New Delhi’s concerns can be traced to vote bank politics and Eurocentrism. This is evident by the account of former foreign policy adviser to Trudeau’s government, Omar Aziz. Canada’s political class remains imbibed with Eurocentric inclinations that affect its foreign policy preferences. Ottawa’s deteriorating ties with Asian and African countries are tied to a lack of respect for the non-western world, including India.

Besides, Prime Minister Trudeau keeps his minority government aground with the support of the New Democratic Party’s (NDP) Sikh leader and a recognized Khalistani sympathiser Jagmeet Singh. Taking any legal action against Khalistani militants could jeopardize the Prime Minister coalition government’s hold on power by losing NDPs 25 seats in the lower house of Canadian Parliament.

Similarly, the Prime Minister’s accusation in the Canadian Parliament should also be viewed against the backdrop of worsening public sentiment towards the ruling Liberal Party and leadership. Many surveys indicate “near-unprecedented” rates of disapproval, with millennials “nearly twice as likely to vote for Conservative as Liberal”. Whereas in contrast to the favourable public outlook towards the main opposition leader Pierre Poilievre, the Prime Minister currently has an approval rating of a mere 33 percent. The negative public sentiment draws from unaffordable housing, high interest rates, and inflation. By facilitating immigration, the government might have plugged gaps in the labour market but this has also translated to an overheated economy. It is usually during heightened unaccountability when elites use foreign policy as a pawn to shore up their credibility by distracting the electorate from real issues.

Repercussions

Albeit there have been consistent high-level official exchanges to defuse the tensions, the diplomatic row over the Khalistan issue threatens to cast a shadow over the scale and potential of economic linkages between the two democracies. While bilateral trade is unlikely to be affected given the complementarity in demand and supply along with robust people-to-people ties, the pause in the free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations could have an impact on momentum, as businesses might become more circumspect about future expansion plans. The prospects of a ripple effect on commercial ties could be especially detrimental to Ottawa’s economy if industry estimates are any indicator. The projections demonstrate that concluding a free trade agreement could boost bilateral trade significantly, yielding a GDP gain of $3.8 billion to $5.9 billion for Canada by 2035.

Additionally, the savings of the Canadian working class are under acute risk. Some of Ottawa’s biggest Public Pension fund managers have invested tens of billions of dollars in Indian firms and projects. For instance, the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board has investments totalling US$21 billion. Experts suggest that the margins on investment could be dampened if the diplomatic feud and Canadian investigation linger on.

After India decided to reduce its diplomatic staff in Ottawa, citing safety issues for the diplomats, Canada had to withdraw 41 of its diplomats when the Indian government chose to revoke their diplomatic status. Soon after the allegations, both countries were quick to suspend visa services and issue travel advisories for their respective citizens. While India after a month resumed issuing visas for a few categories, tourists and e-visas remain suspended. Canada Immigration Minister Marc Miller stated that the department will be able to process only about half of the visa applications filed by Indians by the end of 2023 due to limited on-the-ground resources in India. The tit-for-tat moves, adversely affecting migration from India to Canada and vice-versa, besides impacting Canada’s economy, could further public unrest. India is by miles Canada’s largest source of international students, making up for roughly 40% of total study permit holders, which also helps the higher education institutes to provide subsidized education to domestic students. Canada’s suspension of visas could potentially see a rise in tuition fees for its citizens at least in the short term.

The diplomatic tussle also comes at the wrong time for Canada in geostrategic terms. Its Indo-Pacific Strategy which was made public in November 2022 strives for a “sustainable, meaningful, and engaged” Canadian presence in the Indo-Pacific. Crucial to this vision is the diversification of trade away from China towards Southeast Asia and importantly, India, viewed as an alternative to China. Ottawa, taking cognizance of India’s growing economy and regional salience, remained intent on not only signing an FTA with India but also joining the Supply Chain Resilience Initiative (SCRI), a grouping that involves New Delhi, along with Tokyo and Canberra. It remains unlikely for India in the current scenario, to pursue deeper bilateral or regional economic partnership with Canada.

Therefore, while both sides recognize the salience of maintaining consistent communication, Canada would do well to find its way out of the diplomatic hazard it has created. It should either produce evidence or retract its statements and address its partner’s serious and long-festering security concerns on Khalistani separatism. It lies in Canada’s long-term economic and geostrategic interests to eschew short-term political considerations and realize the substantive benefits that its ties with India promise. Moreover, for any relationship to progress, mutual respect and understanding is essential. The onus lies on Canada to walk the talk on its commitment to the rule of law.

He is an author and a Non-Resident Assistant Editor at the Consortium of Indo-Pacific Researchers, New Jersey. His work has appeared in numerous national and international publications.

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